Will Smith Changes Lauer’s Night

The opening line at Bookmaker Sportsbook has Los Angeles at -174 and St. Louis at +153, with the Dodgers at -1.5 (+115) and the total set at 9.

Prediction: Dodgers 5-3 Cardinals

Betting Lean: Dodgers -1.5 (+115)

The plus-money run line is preferable to laying -174 because Tuesday potentially gives Los Angeles something it has been missing for nearly three months: Will Smith behind the plate and back in the lineup.

Will Smith Returns With Two Jobs

Dave Roberts expects Smith to be activated Tuesday after neck inflammation kept him out since June 11.

“The experience, the calmness in the box, the managing of the pitching staff, all that stuff is crucial,” Roberts said while discussing what Smith’s return would restore.

The last part is particularly relevant tonight.

Eric Lauer returns to the rotation after pitching two innings of relief Wednesday. He enters with a 4.78 ERA and only 70 strikeouts in 105⅓ innings, so this is not a matchup in which Los Angeles can expect its starter to overpower St. Louis.

Smith gives Lauer an experienced game-caller for that assignment while also returning another right-handed bat against Michael McGreevy.

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McGreevy Cannot Wait for Velocity.

McGreevy’s 3.86 ERA is better than Lauer’s, but his route through this lineup depends on something other than pure stuff.

The Cardinals right-hander has spoken this season about accepting days when his fastball is not there and trusting the rest of his arsenal instead. “I know I have other weapons to get guys out,” McGreevy said.

That adaptability will be severely tested at Dodger Stadium.

Los Angeles has Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts available, with Smith potentially returning behind them. McGreevy’s 98 strikeouts across 142⅓ innings underline the challenge: he has to control contact and sequencing against a lineup capable of punishing mistakes without relying on strikeouts to escape them.

St. Louis Arrives With Missing Pieces

The Cardinals’ lineup remains unsettled.

JJ Wetherholt is on the injured list with wrist tendinitis, while Masyn Winn’s fractured thumb has kept him out. Oliver Marmol has consequently been evaluating alternatives near the top of the order, praising Bryan Torres for his recent opportunities there and describing the road trip as a chance for players to show what they can do.

Los Angeles enters September 82-55 and atop the NL West, making every game relevant to the seeding picture covered in our MLB Playoffs Betting Guide.

Smith’s expected return strengthens both sides of the Dodgers’ assignment. At +115, that makes the run line more attractive than paying the moneyline premium.

Prediction: Dodgers 5-3 Cardinals

Betting Lean: Dodgers -1.5 (+115)

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