Why Are Bookmakers Fading Parker Messick?

Payton Tolle has apparently graduated from exciting young pitcher to please hand over -126 and stop asking questions.

Fair enough. The 22-year-old owns a 3.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in 143 innings. He could start Boston’s first Wild Card game. Last time Fenway saw him, he opened with an immaculate inning.

There is one small inconvenience. Parker Messick has been better.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line: Guardians +112, Red Sox -126; Guardians +1.5 (-205), Red Sox -1.5 (+178); Over 7 (+110), Under 7 (-125). Pick: Guardians +112.

Parker Messick Has Been Rude Everywhere

Messick enters 12-9 with a 2.57 ERA and 186 strikeouts. Away from Cleveland, the number gets sillier: 2.21 ERA across 85⅓ road innings.

So Boston is not facing a useful left-hander while countering with the prodigy. It faces another excellent left-hander who has already shown that leaving Progressive Field doesn’t make him spontaneously combustible. That rather interferes with -126.

The MLB Betting Hub contains more guides and game previews from the September schedule.

Tolle Has Already Earned October

None of this requires pretending Tolle is overpriced because he is overrated. He isn’t. Boston is considering him for Game 1 of an AL Wild Card Series, and the evidence is substantial. His season includes a 14-strikeout performance over six innings and an eight-inning shutout in Toronto accomplished with only 91 pitches.

That second start is the interesting one. Tolle did not require strikeout pyrotechnics. He generated softer contact and escaped traffic. The kid has more than one trick.

Wonderful. So does Parker Messick.

The MLB Playoffs Betting Guide contains additional guides and articles covering the postseason race.

Seven Runs Expect Almost Nothing

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s total of 7 is not subtle. Nor should it be.

Two left-handers arrive with ERAs of 3.02 or lower and 352 combined strikeouts. Boston gets Fenway and the deeper offense. Cleveland gets a starter whose road ERA begins with a two and a playoff chase that has reduced its margin for casual afternoons to approximately zero.

The Under -125 is defensible. I prefer attacking the assumption hiding inside the moneyline.

Minus 126 Bought The Wrong Favorite

Boston is 84-72. Cleveland is 81-75. Tolle has been excellent. Fenway belongs to Boston. Congratulations to the prosecution.

Now explain why Messick at +112 is the side paying us. Cleveland enters the final six games with its playoff magic number at three after sweeping the Athletics. Messick supplies a 2.57 ERA, elite road production and 20 more strikeouts than Tolle in a matchup already priced for pitching.

At even money, perhaps we argue all afternoon. At plus money, George has left the building.

Prediction: Guardians 3, Red Sox 2.

Betting lean: Guardians +112.

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