UFC Paris: Soriano Has Found His Second Gear

Punahele Soriano spent the first part of his UFC career carrying an obvious weapon and an equally obvious problem. The left hand could end a fight. When it did not, opponents increasingly had opportunities to drag him somewhere less comfortable.

Four consecutive victories at welterweight have complicated that picture. Soriano is still dangerous early, but February’s win over Ramiz Brahimaj showed something more useful against Daniil Donchenko: he lost the first round, survived difficult grappling positions, adjusted, and won the fight. Could this make him an upset in UFC Paris?

Donchenko presents precisely the sort of problem that makes that adjustment relevant. The 25-year-old lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute through his young UFC career, has won eight straight and stopped Theodor Berggren in June after deliberately varying his attacks rather than simply loading up.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line makes Donchenko a -222 favorite, with Soriano +185. My prediction is Daniil Donchenko by decision, but the path there is considerably less comfortable than that price suggests.

Donchenko Cannot Spend Everything Twice.

Donchenko’s unanimous decision over Alex Morono exposed the cost of his aggression. He repeatedly loaded up while chasing damage and pushed himself toward exhaustion. Against Berggren, the correction was visible: body attacks and low kicks created openings before the eventual head-kick sequence produced the second-round stoppage.

That evolution matters more than his raw striking volume. Soriano can punch with him, but trading clean combinations with Donchenko is unnecessary risk. His better route is to make the Ukrainian repeatedly switch jobs: strike, defend a level change, work from the clinch, separate, then start again.

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Soriano’s Left Hand Is No Longer Alone

Soriano’s wrestling has become more relevant since his move to 170 pounds. He averages 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 43 percent of his recorded significant strikes have landed on the ground.

That changes Donchenko’s calculations. A 70 percent significant-strike defense is impressive, but it describes only the exchanges Soriano should be trying to limit.

Donchenko himself has identified the change in his opponent, observing during fight week that Soriano has become more measured since moving down in weight. Soriano’s recent results support the broader point: he no longer needs every exchange to prove his power.

Our UFC Betting Guide provides more context for separating finishing ability from sustainable matchup advantages.

UFC Paris May Reward the Boring Decision

Donchenko remains the sharper and more varied striker. His kicks give Soriano another layer to process, his combinations arrive faster, and his 75 percent takedown defense offers some protection against the obvious adjustment.

The question is whether Soriano can make those advantages expensive. If Donchenko accepts every pocket exchange, Soriano’s power can abruptly rewrite the fight. If Soriano repeatedly gets underneath his combinations, the favorite’s output becomes harder to sustain.

Donchenko has already recognized that lesson once. That gives him the edge.

Fight Prediction: Daniil Donchenko by unanimous decision.

The Favorite Has an Expensive Job

Bookmaker Sportsbook lists Donchenko at -222 and Soriano at +185, with Over 1.5 rounds at -165 and Under 1.5 at +144.

The moneyline asks too much for a fighter whose UFC sample remains three bouts deep against an opponent who has developed several ways to disrupt his preferred fight.

Betting Lean

Over 1.5 rounds -165.

Soriano has become more capable of surviving difficult stretches, while Donchenko’s recent development has been toward controlled offense rather than immediate escalation. The risk is obvious and matchup-specific: both possess genuine finishing power, and Soriano’s southpaw left can punish Donchenko if his enthusiasm pulls him into the pocket.

The better fighter is Donchenko. The better position is that neither needs to prove it immediately.

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