Tsitsipas Keeps Giving Away the Start

Stefanos Tsitsipas has found solutions throughout this US Open. The troubling part is how often he has needed one.

Tsitsipas has lost the opening set in all three matches before recovering to win in four. Against Jiri Lehecka, he turned a 2-6 start into a 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-1 victory. Ben Shelton presents a harsher version of that problem because his left-handed serve can make an early deficit considerably harder to retrieve.

Bookmaker Sportsbook opening line makes Shelton a -250 favorite, with Tsitsipas +198. Shelton -4 games is -108, Tsitsipas +4 is -114, and the total opens at 40.5. The betting lean is Tsitsipas +4 games at -114.

Tsitsipas Has Started Expecting Trouble

The most revealing part of Tsitsipas’ preparation is psychological rather than technical. After beating Lehecka, he explained that he is deliberately preparing himself for difficult scenarios rather than expecting matches to unfold cleanly. That approach fits what has happened in New York: three lost opening sets, followed by three recoveries.

There is also a tangible tennis mechanism behind those recoveries. Against Lehecka, Tsitsipas won 68% of his second-serve points while taking 53% of Lehecka’s. He converted five of nine break points.

That second-serve pressure becomes particularly important Sunday. Shelton can remove points entirely with his first delivery. Tsitsipas needs the rallies that begin when it misses.

More tournament previews and related resources are available through our Tennis Betting Hub.

Shelton Just Played Until 2 A.M.

Shelton’s third round provided evidence for both sides of the handicap. He beat Denis Shapovalov in four sets, striking 14 aces and reaching 147 mph with his fastest serve. But the match lasted three hours and 22 minutes and finished shortly after 2 a.m. Saturday. Shelton subsequently described his performance as nowhere near his best.

The turnaround is not alarmingly short, because Sunday’s match gives him a full day between appearances. It is nevertheless relevant to a four-game spread when Tsitsipas has repeatedly extended matches after losing the first set.

Shelton also knows he isn’t facing the same version of Tsitsipas who fell outside the top 80 earlier this season. He said on Saturday that Tsitsipas is playing well and specifically identified his all-court game and athleticism as strengths.

Our ATP Betting Guide provides additional context for assessing game spreads when elite servers can protect a margin without necessarily controlling every set.

One Tiebreak Could Distort Four Games

Their only previous meeting offers a useful tactical test rather than a history lesson. Tsitsipas won 7-6(3), 7-6(2) in Cincinnati in 2023. Neither player faced a break point. Shelton won 84% of his first-serve points; Tsitsipas won 93% of his own.

Tsitsipas himself now says Shelton is a substantially different player. That assessment is difficult to dispute after the American’s development into a top-10 player and his success across surfaces in 2026.

But the old match shows the specific danger of laying four games. If both players protect serve for extended stretches, very little scoreboard separation is available even when Shelton is producing the more intimidating service numbers.

The risk is Tsitsipas’ return position against the left-handed delivery. Shelton can drag him wide in the ad court and immediately attack the exposed first ball. If Tsitsipas begins slowly again, this opponent may not provide the same route back.

Yet the spread allows Tsitsipas to lose the match while still rewarding another competitive four-set performance. His improved second-serve numbers, repeated recoveries, and ability to protect his own delivery make that preferable to paying -250 for Shelton.

Stefanos Tsitsipas +4 games at -114 is the betting position.

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