Toronto Has Seven Innings to Hide

José Soriano nearly no-hit Detroit on Monday. Four days later, Toronto may require something uncomfortably close to an encore.

Dylan Cease lasted only 2⅔ innings Friday, forcing the Blue Jays to use five relievers. Toronto has been leaning heavily on its pitching staff just to remain in the race, and Saturday now belongs to the one starter recently capable of making the bullpen almost irrelevant. Soriano has a 3.56 ERA, but the more provocative number is seven: he completed seven innings in each of his previous two starts.

Bookmaker Sportsbook’s opening line makes Toronto -120 and Texas +106, with Over 8 at -120, Under 8 at +106, Toronto -1.5 (+149) and Texas +1.5 (-172).

José Soriano Is Carrying Someone Else’s Problem

Soriano’s assignment is theoretically simple. His recent work suggests he can handle it. He held Oakland to two runs across seven innings on September 9. Against Detroit on Monday, he carried a no-hitter into the seventh. Those outings are precisely why Toronto can reasonably trust him with innings on Saturday.

But that trust has acquired a second purpose. Cease’s short Friday start required Toronto to cover 6⅓ innings with five relievers. Brendan Cellucci and José Rodriguez combined for three scoreless innings, but Toronto still had to cycle through Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, and Joe Mantiply.

José Soriano is no longer merely trying to beat Texas. He is being asked to make Toronto’s bullpen disappear.

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Quantrill Makes Patience Dangerous

The market nevertheless asks Texas to take plus money behind a starter who has quietly become extremely difficult to separate from games.

Cal Quantrill enters 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA. More importantly for Saturday, he has won five of his last six starts and posted a 1.89 ERA over that stretch. His latest assignment lasted six innings, with two runs, five hits, four strikeouts, and no walks.

That changes the pressure on Soriano. Texas doesn’t need an early eruption. Every clean Quantrill inning keeps Toronto’s bullpen problem alive and pushes the Blue Jays closer to the decision they would rather postpone: how far can Soriano go before protecting him becomes more important than protecting the game?

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Toronto Is Paying for Perfection

This is where -120 becomes difficult to swallow. Toronto is asking Soriano to extend a superb run while its margin for a five-inning start has narrowed dramatically. Texas counters with the starter carrying the better season ERA and a 1.89 ERA over his last six starts.

The Rangers also forced Cease into six walks Friday. Skip Schumaker had explicitly described Texas’ approach against Cease as running up the pitch count and getting him out early. That plan worked so completely that its consequence survives into Saturday.

José Soriano can extinguish it by pitching deep again.

Texas +106 is the wager that eventually somebody makes him hand over the ball.

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