The Texans Just Lost Their Burrow Cushion

Houston gets Joe Burrow on Sunday. Joe Burrow gets Houston without Nico Collins. One of those developments appears rather more convenient than the other.

The Texans are -2.5 favorites despite losing their No. 1 receiver to a hamstring injury and preparing for a Bengals offense that spent Week 1 giving Ja’Marr Chase the football twice.

Burrow has already addressed that little outbreak of restraint. It will not happen again.

Two Chase Touches Were Apparently Enough

Cincinnati beat Tampa Bay 27-20 while Chase caught two passes. Burrow’s reaction was refreshingly uncomplicated: Cincinnati cannot finish another game with Chase touching the ball twice. They’ll emphasize getting him involved against Houston.

Excellent timing. Buffalo just threw for 323 yards against a Texans defense that allowed only 183.5 per game last season. Houston’s Derek Stingley Jr. remains an elite complication, and Burrow called his ball skills the best in the league among cornerbacks.

But Stingley cannot cover everyone. Houston’s linebacking structure has also changed. Henry To’oTo’o is on injured reserve, Jake Hummel is out, and Jake Hansen is expected to take on a larger role alongside Azeez Al-Shaair.

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Burrow’s Back Gets Anderson And Hunter

Admittedly, Cincinnati’s lovely plan has a small flaw. Burrow spent Wednesday and Thursday limited by back tightness.

He practiced fully Friday and remains officially questionable, although Zac Taylor said he feels good about Burrow playing. Burrow’s own assessment of potentially sitting out was considerably shorter: “That’s ridiculous.”

Houston therefore gets its preferred argument. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for 27 sacks last season. Cincinnati counters with Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims, who allowed only three pressures against Tampa Bay.

Burrow’s back makes that collision more important. It does not make him absent.

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The Texans Removed Stroud’s Best Escape Hatch

C.J. Stroud was good against Buffalo: 274 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 106.7 passer rating. He also lost two fumbles.

Now Collins is unavailable after leading Houston with seven catches, 75 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Right guard Ed Ingram is also out. David Montgomery gives Houston another route after scoring three times against Buffalo, but Cincinnati’s defensive front has already shown it can alter a game without living on the blitz.

That leaves a rather awkward price. Bookmaker Sportsbook opening line: Houston at -147 and Cincinnati at +129. The Texans are -2.5 at -111, with Cincinnati +2.5 at -105. The total is 45.5, with the over at -107 and the under at -109.

Houston’s defense has a pass rush that can make Burrow’s afternoon unpleasant. Cincinnati has Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, and a healthier offensive line attacking a defense that just surrendered an explosive-play rate of 21.2% to Buffalo. Houston has Stroud attempting to answer without Collins and behind a line missing Ingram.

And Houston is laying points. How generous.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Houston Texans 23.

Betting Lean: Cincinnati Bengals +129.

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