Texas Tech Hasn’t Earned Eight Points

Texas Tech is favored by more than a touchdown because apparently winning the Big 12 last year still comes with store credit.

The current team has played twice. It was outgained 417-197 at Oregon State, surrendered more than 400 passing yards and enters Friday with Will Hammond still settling into the full-time quarterback job after ACL rehabilitation limited his offseason. Houston arrives with Conner Weigman, an upgraded offensive line and enough experience that Willie Fritz isn’t pretending a sold-out Lubbock crowd represents unexplored territory.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line: Houston +7.5 (-113), Texas Tech -7.5 (-103); total 52.5; Houston +259, Texas Tech -305. Pick: Houston +7.5 (-113).

Four Hundred Seventeen Yards Left Evidence

Oregon State did not expose some theoretical weakness. It threw for 417 yards against Texas Tech.

Now Amare Thomas arrives with 162 receiving yards and two touchdowns through two games, while Weigman has completed 69 percent of his passes for 425 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.

Texas Tech could get reinforcements. Joey McGuire said edge rusher Trey White and tight end Terrance Carter Jr. were “trending in the right direction,” though their availability still depended on avoiding setbacks. That helps. It does not magically delete 417.

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Houston Rebuilt The Part Texas Tech Broke

The most relevant Houston offseason work happened directly in front of Weigman. The Cougars added preseason All-American guard Shadre Hurst and veteran center Anthony Boswell to an offensive line that struggled badly in this matchup last year. Houston’s left side has consequently become a substantially different proposition for Texas Tech’s front.

Weigman also has 13 previous SEC starts from his Texas A&M career. Houston pumped crowd noise into Tuesday’s practice anyway, but Fritz’s assessment was refreshingly uncomplicated: Weigman has played in hostile environments and rarely makes mistakes within Houston’s offense. So much for Lubbock turning into Mordor at kickoff.

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Hammond’s Completion Percentage Flatters Him

Will Hammond has completed an excellent 76.7 percent of his passes. He has also thrown only two touchdowns in 60 attempts while Texas Tech’s offense produced just 197 total yards at Oregon State. Offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich admitted after the opener that the Red Raiders needed a better early-down plan, and reporting around the Houston matchup describes an offense still searching for consistency in the run game and more vertical aggression.

Houston’s defense is not spectacular because it crushed Southern 77-6. Southern is not the evidence.

The evidence is personnel and structure: Fritz’s defense has remained difficult to run against, while Texas Tech has not yet demonstrated that Hammond can consistently punish opponents when the ground game stops doing the negotiating.

Seven And A Half Feels Nostalgic

Texas Tech may absolutely win this game. Texas Tech -7.5 is a different proposition.

The Red Raiders are asking bettors to pay championship prices for September evidence that currently includes 197 yards of offense and 417 passing yards conceded in the same football game.

Houston has a veteran quarterback, a rebuilt offensive line, Makhi Hughes in the backfield, and a passing game with clear ways to attack Texas Tech’s weakest area. The Cougars don’t need superiority everywhere. They require the game to remain irritating. I think it will.

Prediction: Texas Tech 27, Houston 24.

Betting lean: Houston +7.5 (-113).

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