Ten Minutes Could Complicate Everything

Amanda Anisimova has already shown two versions of herself at this US Open. One controls the baseline early, takes time away, and turns a short ball into an immediate problem. The other appeared during the middle of Thursday’s match against Lilli Tagger, when a double fault surrendered an early break, and Tagger won four of the next five games.

Then came the useful part. Anisimova reset and won the deciding set 6-1. That makes Anastasia Potapova a particularly interesting third-round opponent. Potapova has enough weight off both wings to punish a drop in Anisimova’s depth. Still, her own second-round numbers suggest she may struggle to keep Anisimova away from exactly the return positions she wants.

The favorite’s biggest threat may be the ten minutes when her first-strike tennis disappears.

Bookmaker Sportsbook lists Anisimova at -526, with Potapova +379. My prediction is Amanda Anisimova in straight sets, but the 5.5-game handicap asks whether she can eliminate the interruption that complicated Thursday.

Nine Double Faults Change the Invitation

Potapova survived Léolia Jeanjean 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 despite landing only 54 percent of her first serves and committing nine double faults.

Those numbers become more dangerous against Anisimova. The American won 40 percent of Tagger’s first-serve points and 52 percent behind the Austrian’s second serve. More importantly, she repeatedly established first-strike control whenever her return landed with sufficient depth.

Potapova cannot afford to begin too many points defensively. Anisimova’s backhand is particularly difficult to escape once she establishes position around the baseline because she can redirect without needing much preparation time.

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Potapova Wants the Second Version

Potapova’s opportunity appears after the first exchange, not during it. Anisimova produced 30 winners against Tagger, twice her opponent’s total, but finished with the same number of unforced errors. The second set demonstrated what happens when her attacking position deteriorates: the same early ball that creates winners can begin shortening points for the wrong reason.

Potapova therefore benefits from changing height, direction and pace rather than trying to beat Anisimova through a clean exchange of baseline power.

There is evidence that she can survive difficult matches. Her 2026 season includes a Madrid semifinal run featuring victories over Jelena Ostapenko, Elena Rybakina and Karolina Pliskova.

The problem is surface-specific. Potapova entered New York with a losing hard-court record this season, while Anisimova’s victory over Tagger improved her to 17-5 on hard courts.

Our WTA Betting Guide provides additional context for weighing surface form against broader rankings and results.

The Third Set Changed the Evidence

Anisimova’s response to losing the second set Thursday was more significant for this matchup than the lapse itself.

She broke immediately in the third, pushed relentlessly for another break in the fourth game, and eventually converted her seventh opportunity. Within four games, Tagger’s momentum had disappeared.

Potapova cannot assume one poor Anisimova service game will reproduce an entire poor set.

That is where the matchup separates. Potapova can hit through the court and has enough return aggression to expose another dip. Anisimova has the heavier sustained first strike, the stronger current hard-court record and, importantly, fresh evidence that she can correct herself during a match.

Prediction: Amanda Anisimova wins 6-3, 6-3.

Six Games Depend on the Disappearance

Anisimova’s -526 moneyline offers little reason to participate. Potapova +5.5 is -118, while Anisimova -5.5 is -104. The total is 19.5 games, with Over -120 and Under -101.

The handicap is more interesting because Anisimova doesn’t just need to win. She needs to prevent Potapova from accumulating routine holds.

Nine double faults against Jeanjean make that difficult to trust.

Betting Lean

Amanda Anisimova -5.5 at -104.

The danger is concentrated, not hidden. If Anisimova experiences another mid-match drop in depth and decision-making, six games is a large number to cover. If her return pressure remains consistent, Potapova’s second serve provides enough opportunities for the favorite to separate.

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