Tagger Brings Anisimova an Unfamiliar Problem

Amanda Anisimova opened her US Open with the kind of performance that makes a short price easy to understand. She beat Ashlyn Krueger 6-1, 6-3 in 72 minutes, producing 25 winners and breaking five times. Yet Krueger still created 11 break points. Anisimova saved 10.

Lilli Tagger now presents something different. The 18-year-old is 6-foot-1, owns a one-handed backhand and arrives without any previous experience against a Top-10 opponent. She also arrives without much interest in treating that occasion reverentially. “My goal is to come up and just try to win against them,” Tagger said after reaching the second round.

Bookmaker Sportsbook’s opening line makes Anisimova a -526 favorite, with Tagger +377. Anisimova is -5 games at -123, while the total is 19.5. Pick: Amanda Anisimova -5 (-123).

Tagger’s Backhand Changes the Geometry

Tagger is not simply another young baseliner being asked to absorb Anisimova’s pace. Her one-handed backhand, long reach, and 6-foot-1 frame give the American a ball pattern she encounters relatively rarely on the WTA Tour. Tagger describes that backhand as “the most natural shot I have.”

The question is whether it remains natural when Anisimova starts taking time away.

Anisimova’s backhand produced 14 of her 25 winners against Krueger. She also won 11 of 13 points at net, evidence of how quickly she was able to turn advantageous baseline positions into finished points.

Tagger therefore needs more than resistance. She needs enough depth from her first ball to prevent Anisimova from stepping forward and repeatedly attacking the same wing.

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Anisimova Left One Door Open

The 6-1, 6-3 score against Krueger looked emphatic. The service numbers were less pristine.

Anisimova landed 54% of her first serves and opened one early service game with consecutive double faults. Krueger generated those 11 break opportunities despite winning only four games.

Anisimova nevertheless won 70% of her second-serve points. More importantly, she was pleased with where her tennis stood after the usual uncertainty of a Grand Slam opener: “I felt great out there today. I thought I played well.”

That matters after a season disrupted by a left wrist injury following Miami, which forced Anisimova out of Charleston and Madrid. There has been no reported recurrence entering this match.

The WTA Betting Guide provides additional context for assessing game handicaps when the favorite’s moneyline offers little practical value.

How Long Can Tagger Stay Neutral?

Tagger’s rise gives the +5 games credibility. She is already inside the Top 50, owns a WTA title and beat Tamara Korpatsch 6-0, 7-6(4) for her first Grand Slam main-draw victory. Her 2026 record stands at 29-17.

Her own assessment after winning Prague was revealing. The title brought confidence, but “we still work on the same stuff.”

Anisimova is a severe test of how finished that work really is. Tagger’s reach and unusual backhand can disrupt familiar patterns, and Anisimova’s first-round break-point exposure is the clear risk to laying five games.

But Tagger is facing a Top-10 opponent for the first time, against an aggressive returner who won 63% of Krueger’s second-serve points and converted five of nine break opportunities. If Anisimova consistently gets inside the baseline, Tagger may spend too much of the match defending her backhand rather than expressing it.

Amanda Anisimova -5 (-123) is the betting lean.

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