Seven Homers Put Gerrit Cole on Trial

Gerrit Cole has two starts left before October and one problem that suddenly refuses to stay inside the ballpark.

Seven home runs have left Cole in his past two starts, including three against the Mets after San Diego opened its game against him with three consecutive homers. Arizona counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who enters at 15-6 with a 2.62 ERA.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line has New York -130, Arizona +115 and the total at 8.5. My pick is Diamondbacks +115, with Arizona winning 5-4.

Gerrit Cole Knows Hitters See Something

The home-run spike is not merely a matter of unfortunate sequencing. After his last start, Cole said opponents are seeing the ball too well and acknowledged, “It’s just one of those times in the season that you’ve got to start making adjustments.”

The four-seam fastball provides the uncomfortable detail. Opponents have hit .333 against it across his last four starts, after hitting .185 earlier in the season.

That brings Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Arizona’s other damage hitters directly into the argument. Cole’s problem is not diminished velocity alone. Hitters have become increasingly comfortable identifying pitches they can drive. Seven homers in two starts turn every mistake into an audition.

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Rodriguez Makes New York Earn Traffic

Rodriguez presents almost the inverse problem. His 2.62 ERA leads Arizona’s rotation, and his 1.22 WHIP gives the Diamondbacks a starter who has generally limited the accumulation of baserunners that New York can convert into multi-run innings.

The Yankees also arrive with uncertainty surrounding Aaron Judge. He left Wednesday with lower-right-leg tightness only seven games after returning from a 99-day absence caused by a rib stress fracture. Judge said he did not expect imaging to be necessary, but New York has reason to be conservative with October approaching.

His status matters enormously against a left-hander. Judge’s right-handed power changes how Rodriguez can navigate a lineup carrying considerable left-handed danger.

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Arizona Gets Cole Before October Does

Aaron Boone has publicly backed Cole, but Friday carries evaluation value beyond one regular-season start.

Cole’s first 18 starts after Tommy John surgery produced a 3.29 ERA before the recent home-run burst. That makes the current issue specific enough to attack without pretending his entire season has collapsed.

Arizona’s opportunity lies in forcing him to adjust immediately. Carroll and Nolan Arenado both have 20-plus homers, while Gabriel Moreno enters the series batting over .300. This lineup doesn’t need constant traffic if Cole keeps surrendering damage on mistakes.

Plus 115 Prices the Uncertainty

New York owns the stronger season record, but the starting-pitching price asks bettors to trust Cole precisely while his primary October question remains unresolved.

Rodriguez gives Arizona the steadier starting point at an underdog number.

Betting Lean

Arizona Diamondbacks +115.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Yankees 4.

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