Seattle Pays for Scherzer’s Reputation

Seattle opened at -138 at Bookmaker Sportsbook; Toronto opened at +122, with the total at 8. The pick is Blue Jays +122.

Toronto has already won the first two games of the series, 8-1 and 4-3, and enters Sunday at 67-70. Seattle has fallen to 64-72. Yet the Mariners remain road favorites because Logan Gilbert faces Max Scherzer.

The obvious number is Scherzer’s 7.02 ERA. The less obvious number is 2.97. That is his career ERA in nine starts against Seattle.

How Much Scherzer Is Still There?

Scherzer’s season has been ugly, but August has contained something other than uninterrupted collapse.

He allowed one run in six innings against St. Louis, two in 5⅓ against Philadelphia and one in five against Boston. Tampa Bay then hit him for seven runs, before Kansas City managed two runs across five innings Tuesday.

The Kansas City line also contained the problem that keeps his price dangerous: five walks against four strikeouts.

At 41, Scherzer is no longer overpowering hitters often enough to erase free baserunners. His season strikeout rate has fallen to 6.48 per nine innings while his walk rate has climbed to 4.50.

But Seattle has seen this particular contradiction before. Last October, Scherzer entered ALCS Game 4 after a poor finish to the regular season and held the Mariners to two runs across 5⅔ innings. He struck out five as Toronto won 8-2. The résumé is old. The matchup history isn’t.

Gilbert Changes the Price, Not Everything

Gilbert supplies the strongest argument for Seattle. He is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA across five August starts, and his season line sits at 11-7 with a 3.36 ERA and 162 strikeouts.

His last outing was less pristine: Philadelphia scored twice in five innings while pushing his pitch count early. Seattle’s bullpen then supplied four perfect innings.

Sunday comes with a different relief picture. Seattle used Eduard Bazardo and José A. Ferrer during Saturday’s blown 3-0 lead before Carlos Vargas covered 2⅓ scoreless innings. Toronto received seven innings from José Soriano before its bullpen finished the 4-3 win.

Toronto has therefore reached the finale without having its relief corps shredded by the first two games.

The MLB Betting Hub and MLB Playoffs Betting Guide provide the wider postseason picture. Here, the price has compressed the matchup into a referendum on Scherzer’s ERA.

Is 7.02 Doing Too Much?

Toronto doesn’t need vintage Scherzer for +122 to be interesting. Five competitive innings resemble what he produced in four of his five August starts far more closely than another seven-run collapse does.

Gilbert is the better pitcher. Seattle is rightly favored.

At -138 at Bookmaker Sportsbook, however, the market asks bettors to pay for that advantage against a Toronto team that has already won four of five meetings with Seattle this season and now has two chances to complete the sweep.

Prediction: Toronto 4-3.

Betting lean: Blue Jays +122.

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