Sean Sharaf Knows Exactly What Is Coming

Sean Sharaf thinks he has solved Gable Steveson. “You’re gonna be shooting for your life,” Sharaf told him Thursday. “You can’t strike.”

There is a small problem with announcing that diagnosis to an Olympic gold medalist who trains every day with Jon Jones.

Steveson is 4-0 with four first-round finishes. Sharaf is 4-2, with both defeats coming inside the UFC. The favorite is almost comically expensive at -2835, with Sharaf +1250. Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line makes Under 1.5 rounds -452 and Over 1.5 +352. The pick is Under 1.5 rounds at -452.

Sean Sharaf May Be Right Too Early

Of course, Steveson can take Sharaf down. That isn’t analysis. That’s gravity with cauliflower ears. The interesting part is what Sharaf does while waiting for it.

Steveson’s work with Jones has specifically emphasized changing pace, choosing when to accelerate and improving his striking timing. Sharaf has now publicly declared where he believes the threat comes from.

Every level change therefore carries two possibilities. Steveson can complete it, or make Sharaf react to it.

A heavyweight expecting his hips to be attacked starts making decisions before the attack arrives. Hands drop. Feet square. The head becomes available.

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Steveson Has No Reason to Hurry

This is where the -2835 favorite becomes more interesting than the price suggests. Steveson said Jones keeps telling him when to slow the pace and when to speed it up. That matters because his UFC debut showed an athlete willing to exchange when wrestling offered the safer weapon.

Saturday’s UFC 331 gives him another opportunity to become less predictable. Sharaf has punching power. All four of his professional victories are first-round knockouts. Steveson gains nothing by turning this into a heavyweight coin toss just to show he can strike.

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But Steveson also gains something from making Sharaf fear the shot before actually taking it. That is where ugly possibilities multiply.

Sharaf Has Already Made It Personal

Thursday removed whatever politeness remained. Sean Sharaf publicly raised the 2019 sexual-assault allegation against Steveson. Prosecutors arrested Steveson during that investigation but declined to file charges, citing insufficient evidence.

Steveson responded by calling Sharaf a coward and saying he was looking for an escape route. None of that improves anybody’s jab. It does tell us that the emotional temperature is considerably higher than the odds suggest.

Sharaf has promised a knockout. Steveson has promised domination. Neither man’s professional record includes a fight that reached the second round. Someone is about to discover whether certainty counts as preparation.

Prediction: Gable Steveson by first-round TKO.

Betting Analysis

Steveson at -2835 offers almost nothing worth buying.

Under 1.5 at -452 at least attacks the mechanism. Sharaf’s aggression creates exchanges; his anticipation of Steveson’s wrestling creates reactions; Steveson’s wrestling can erase the fight whenever those exchanges become inconvenient.

Betting Lean

Under 1.5 rounds -452.

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