Raul Rosas Jr. Goes Looking for Barcelos’ Grappling

Raul Rosas Jr. has picked an interesting night to become curious. “I want to figure out what his grappling is about.”

Barcelos is exactly the kind of opponent who can make that experiment last. He has defended 88% of UFC takedown attempts, while Rosas averages 6.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. More importantly, this is Rosas’ first five-round fight.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line makes Rosas -150, Barcelos +130, with Over 3.5 rounds -175 and Under +151.

The pick is Over 3.5 rounds -175.

Raul Rosas Jr. Wants the Rounds Nobody Has Seen

Rosas isn’t merely accepting the 25-minute format. He’s intrigued by it. “It makes me more excited if it does go to the fourth and fifth round,” Rosas said this week, explaining that he wants five rounds to attempt to finish an opponent who is difficult to put away.

That changes the usual Raul Rosas Jr. proposition. Six of his 12 victories have ended in the first round. Barcelos has been finished only twice across 24 professional fights.

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Barcelos Wants Rosas in His Laboratory

Barcelos believes previous opponents lacked the grappling combination required to disturb Rosas.

“He’s never faced a guy with good wrestling; he’s never faced a guy with good jiu-jitsu.” Saturday tests that claim from both directions.

Rosas can force repeated entries. Barcelos can defend them, counter them and make the younger fighter work through positions rather than simply arriving at them.

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Twenty-Five Minutes Changes the Temptation

Barcelos says he will hunt an early finish. Rosas wants one too. But both men are describing routes that run directly through the other’s strongest resistance.

Barcelos’ 88% takedown defense makes a quick Rosas submission harder to price confidently. Rosas has never been finished professionally.

That leaves four completed rounds as the more attractive proposition.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. by decision.

Betting Analysis

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line offers Over 3.5 rounds at -175.

Rosas finally has extra rounds available, and he sounds interested in using them. Barcelos brings exactly the defensive grappling depth capable of making him do so.

Betting Lean

Over 3.5 rounds -175.

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