Nikola Jokic Faces Golden State’s Last Stand

Golden State has three losses, tired legs, and a nasty problem waiting in Denver. Nikola Jokic doesn’t need to overpower the Warriors to beat them. He can make their defense chase shadows until somebody loses his assignment.

But Draymond Green and Al Horford are returning, and that changes the fight around the basket. The real question is whether those veteran legs can survive the Nuggets’ constant movement without leaving Stephen Curry exposed at the other end.

Bookmaker Sportsbook opening line: Golden State +7.5 (-108), Denver -7.5 (-108). Moneyline: Warriors +224, Nuggets -261. Total: 234, Over -108 / Under -108.

Three Losses, One Dangerous Return

The Warriors are 0-3, but Saturday’s 131-122 defeat in Phoenix came without Curry, Green, Horford and Brandin Podziemski. All four are expected back Monday.

That matters. Golden State lost the transition battle 27-7 against Phoenix, even though they hit 17 three-pointers. A team can shoot beautifully and still get run off the floor when nobody gets back defensively.

Steve Kerr’s biggest concern isn’t finding offense. It’s getting five players working together defensively before Denver starts picking them apart.

Nikola Jokic Can Turn Experience Into Exhaustion

Nikola Jokic recorded 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists against New Orleans. Jamal Murray added 42 as Denver escaped with a 141-135 overtime victory after trailing by 23.

That comeback showed Denver’s resilience. It also required an exhausting effort from its two stars.

Green knows Jokic’s tricks. Horford has the size and experience to challenge him. But Jokic can pull either defender away from the basket, force a switch, then find Aaron Gordon cutting behind the defense. And if Golden State commits a second defender, Murray gets another opportunity.

Data Snapshot

Monday, October 26, 2026 | Ball Arena, Denver | 10:00 PM ET.

The Rookie Denver Will Test

Yaxel Lendeborg has averaged 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds through three games. That’s encouraging, but the Denver Nuggets offer a tougher defensive examination.

Kerr identified the problem after Phoenix: “His weak-side awareness right now is very poor.”

That’s the opening Nikola Jokic can exploit. One missed rotation, one late recovery, and Denver gets a clean look.

Curry’s return gives Golden State another weapon, but it doesn’t automatically repair those defensive gaps.

Betting Analysis: The Schedule Trap

Denver is better equipped to win this matchup, particularly inside. But Saturday’s overtime comeback demanded heavy minutes from Jokic and Murray, while Golden State rested several veterans.

The Nuggets might win the physical battle without maintaining enough separation to cover a substantial spread.

Sporting verdict: Denver 119, Golden State 114.

Betting lean: Golden State +7.5 (-108). Curry’s return, Denver’s short recovery and Golden State’s improved veteran depth make the points attractive.

The risk is Jokic dismantling Golden State’s weak-side rotations and forcing its older defenders into prolonged recovery runs. If that happens, seven and a half points won’t offer much protection.

The Nuggets should win. But there’s a difference between beating a tired opponent and covering against one that has deliberately rested its best players.

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