Madrid Gave Alexander Blockx a Dangerous Shortcut

Francisco Cerundolo has survived ten sets across his last two matches. Alexander Blockx has spent considerably less time surviving and considerably more time taking the racket out of opponents’ hands.

That distinction matters because Blockx already knows what works against Cerundolo. He beat him 7-6(8), 6-2 in Madrid this spring, then arrived in New York with a hard-court version of the same problem: first-strike power, a heavy serve, and enough movement behind it to stop aggressive opponents from immediately reclaiming court position.

Cerundolo’s comeback from two sets and a break down against Taylor Fritz proved his resilience. Monday asks whether resilience can keep compensating for an opponent who may not give him enough neutral rallies to settle.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line has Blockx at -167 and Cerundolo at +135. Blockx is -3 games at -109, Cerundolo +3 at -112, with the total at 38 games.

Betting lean: Alexander Blockx -3 (-109).

Madrid Was Not About the Clay

Their only meeting should not be treated as a historical curiosity. Blockx won because Cerundolo struggled to turn enough returns into neutral points. Once the Belgian established a first-strike position, the Argentine’s forehand stopped dictating where rallies began.

That mechanism looks even more relevant in New York. Against Flavio Cobolli, Blockx struck 17 aces and 41 winners. After dropping the opening set, he won 11 consecutive games across the second and third sets, taking 24 of 28 points in the third alone. US Open reporting described the Belgian moving Cobolli from side to side while maintaining enough precision to avoid giving the Italian easy counterattacking positions.

Cerundolo therefore faces a return problem before he faces a rally problem.

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Ten Sets Sit Behind Cerundolo

Cerundolo’s physical condition is not reported as an injury concern. Workload is the issue.

He needed five sets to beat Jan-Lennard Struff, then another five to recover from two sets down against Fritz. Against the American, Cerundolo also had to recover from an early break in the third before turning the match around. Afterward, he said he was “super proud” of the comeback and made clear he was not satisfied merely reaching the second week.

Cerundolo became increasingly effective against Fritz once he could establish longer exchanges and repeatedly hit the American under pressure. His forehand then became heavier rather than simply more spectacular.

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Cobolli Could Not Stop the Surge

Blockx’s win on Saturday contained one detail that Cerundolo cannot ignore. After losing the first set, Blockx didn’t just improve. He accelerated. His 11-game run transformed the match before Cobolli could stabilize, and when the Italian threatened another fourth-set recovery, Blockx closed the match with four precisely placed first serves in a love hold.

That is the dangerous scenario for Cerundolo. The Argentine has demonstrated that losing the first two sets does not end his afternoon. But repeatedly conceding short service games while laboring through his own creates a different kind of deficit. After ten sets in two rounds, every additional physical service game carries a little more interest.

Cerundolo does have one compelling counter. Blockx has never played a Grand Slam fourth round. At the same time, Cerundolo has now survived consecutive matches in which his position looked considerably worse than anything the Belgian has faced this week. Blockx himself admitted that tightness contributed to a difficult Cincinnati loss to Cobolli only two weeks ago. However, he believed that experience had better prepared him for the same pressure in New York.

Prediction: Alexander Blockx in four sets.

Betting lean: Alexander Blockx -3 (-109). His serve and first-strike patterns already troubled Cerundolo in Madrid, and the faster New York conditions make those patterns more valuable. Cerundolo’s forehand and proven five-set durability are meaningful risks, but consecutive marathons make repeated difficult service games increasingly expensive if Blockx continues holding quickly.

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