Kostyuk Has Given Gauff This Problem Before

Marta Kostyuk looked in serious trouble against Mirra Andreeva. She had lost the first set 6-4. Andreeva had the cleaner rhythm. Another deep Cincinnati run appeared to be moving away from her. Kostyuk responded by winning eight consecutive games.

The eventual 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 victory sent the world No. 11 into the quarterfinals and continued a season already containing titles in Madrid and Rouen and a Wimbledon semifinal.

Coco Gauff arrives as world No. 4 after a less dramatic afternoon. Her 6-3, 6-2 victory over Marie Bouzkova followed straight-sets success against Ann Li and a three-set escape from Liudmila Samsonova.

Three Hours In Melbourne Changed This Rivalry

Their 2024 Australian Open quarterfinal was exhausting even by Grand Slam standards. Gauff eventually won 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 after more than three hours, surviving a match in which neither player could hold the initiative for very long.

But Kostyuk has not lost to her since. She beat Gauff on clay in Stuttgart later that year, then won 6-2, 7-5 in Doha in 2025. That Doha result is more useful for Cincinnati.

Kostyuk repeatedly denied Gauff the comfortable rally pattern she prefers. She stepped onto shorter balls, changed direction early and made Gauff defend before she could establish depth.

The current version of Kostyuk is doing that with considerably more authority. Madrid brought her biggest title of the year. Wimbledon brought a first Grand Slam semifinal. Cincinnati has already required her to recover from a set down against Andreeva without becoming impatient.

One Gauff Weakness Meets The Wrong Opponent

Gauff’s serve remains the peculiar contradiction inside an otherwise formidable game. When the first delivery is working, it can immediately put her in command. When it disappears, the second serve can turn routine games into negotiations.

Kostyuk is particularly well equipped to make those negotiations expensive. She has won 47.6% of her return games in 2026, narrowly ahead of Gauff’s 47.1%. They also sit almost together in return points won, at 48.6% and 48.4%.

Those are not decorative statistics here. Kostyuk wants to get forward on the return. Gauff’s second serve gives her the opportunity. A couple of loose service games could change the geometry of an entire set.

Gauff Can Make Kostyuk Hit The Extra Ball She Doesn’t Want

There is a reason Gauff remains the favorite. Kostyuk’s aggression can become spectacular when she is balanced around the baseline. Gauff is exceptionally good at making that balance disappear.

Her speed changes what qualifies as a winner. A ball that ends the point against most opponents comes back. Then another comes back. Eventually, the attacker has to decide whether to wait or try something better.

Kostyuk has not always enjoyed that decision. Against Andreeva, however, she made it beautifully after the opening set. Rather than trying to blast her way out of trouble, she moved forward incrementally and attacked when the court actually opened.

Cincinnati Has Already Asked Both Women For An Answer

Gauff’s tournament nearly took a different shape against Samsonova. She lost the first set 6-2 before recovering 6-4, 6-1. Since then, Ann Li and Bouzkova have not taken a set from her.

Kostyuk’s alarm arrived later. Andreeva took the opening set before Kostyuk turned the match upside down, handing a Top 5 opponent a 6-0 second set and finishing the third 6-2.

There is useful evidence in both recoveries. Neither woman reaches the quarterfinals because the draw has allowed her to avoid discomfort.

Bookmakers Have Left Almost Nothing Between Them

Bookmaker Sportsbook makes Gauff a -147 favorite, with Kostyuk at +120. For a world No. 4 facing No. 11, that is hardly a ringing endorsement of the favorite.

The more revealing price may be the handicap. Gauff gives 2.5 games at -106. Kostyuk receives the same 2.5 at -115. The total is 21.5, with the over priced at -119.

The line respects Gauff’s higher floor without pretending Kostyuk’s recent trajectory or their history can be ignored.

Anyone following the Cincinnati Open through our Tennis Betting Hub has seen how quickly a small game handicap can become uncomfortable when elite returners meet. The WTA Betting Guide goes deeper into handicaps, totals, and moneylines across the women’s tour.

Prediction

Gauff brings the better movement and the greater ability to survive points after losing the initiative. Kostyuk brings something rather useful against her: familiarity.

She has beaten Gauff twice consecutively. Her return game attacks the part of Gauff’s tennis most likely to wobble, and the last three months have supplied ample evidence that her best level is no longer arriving occasionally.

Pick: Marta Kostyuk +2.5 Games (-115)

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