Karen Khachanov Keeps Finding Zverev’s Backhand

Karen Khachanov does not need to discover an’t need to find new way to trouble Alexander Zverev. He already has one.

Khachanov beat Zverev on a North American hard court last summer by refusing to surrender the baseline and surviving long enough behind serve to make Zverev play another difficult ball. Friday asks whether Khachanov can sustain that pattern across a best-of-five Grand Slam semifinal, rather than the best-of-three format in which he beat Zverev in Toronto.

Khachanov Got the Rest Nobody Expected

Khachanov entered his quarterfinal carrying more accumulated court time than Zverev.

Then Alexander Blockx’s body changed the equation.

Khachanov led 6-2, 7-5, 3-2 when the injured Belgian retired after 1 hour, 37 minutes. Instead of another long Grand Slam examination, Khachanov left Arthur Ashe without completing three sets.

He also felt he had imposed himself before Blockx’s physical problems took over, saying afterward that he had been “dominating from the beginning.”

The shortened match is especially useful before facing Zverev in a best-of-five. Khachanov needs his first serve and forehand to keep generating stretches where Zverev responds rather than dictates, and maintaining that aggression may get harder as the match extends.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line makes Zverev -556 and Khachanov +393. Zverev -5.5 games is -111, Khachanov +5.5 is -110, with the total at 38.5. The betting lean is Karen Khachanov +5.5 games at -110.

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Toronto Left Zverev One Ball Short

Their 2025 Toronto semifinal provides a more useful tactical reference than simply noting Zverev’s 3-1 head-to-head advantage.

Khachanov won 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(4), saving a match point before taking five consecutive points after trailing 3-1 in the deciding tiebreak.

The mechanism was important. Khachanov was willing to flatten his groundstrokes and prevent Zverev from stepping comfortably inside the baseline. That approach remains most dangerous when Khachanov can establish his forehand without being pushed deep behind the court.

Zverev’s backhand is enormously difficult to break down outright. Khachanov instead needs to keep forcing him to strike it from positions where he cannot immediately redirect the rally.

The ATP Betting Guide offers additional context for game handicaps when a heavy favorite faces an opponent capable of protecting enough service games to compress the margin.

Best-of-Five Changes the Toronto Equation

Toronto established that Khachanov’s pattern can work. Friday asks considerably more of it.

A best-of-three match can be decided by one protected service game or a handful of points in a deciding tiebreak. Best-of-five gives Zverev more time to accumulate return pressure and turn one difficult Khachanov service stretch into a larger game differential.

That distinction cuts directly into the +5.5 handicap. Khachanov does not need to reproduce his Toronto victory. He needs to protect enough service games to stop Zverev from steadily widening the margin across three, four, or five sets. His unexpectedly short quarterfinal gives him a better physical platform to do so.

The risk is Zverev’s serve. If Khachanov cannot create meaningful second-serve looks, one break per set can push the scoreboard beyond five games even without Zverev overwhelming him.

But the market is asking Zverev to create substantial separation against an opponent who recently demonstrated a viable hard-court pattern against him and now arrives without the quarterfinal workload that had threatened to become another disadvantage.

Karen Khachanov +5.5 games at -110 is the betting position.

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