Jacob Misiorowski’s 105 MPH Fastball Has a Catch

GEORGE MISKEN | WORLD SERIES GAME 1 | OCTOBER 23, 2026

Jacob Misiorowski can throw a baseball past almost anyone. What happens when Tampa Bay refuses to swing through it?

That’s the problem Milwaukee’s young ace brings into the World Series opener. His extraordinary velocity should overwhelm hitters, but recent postseason opponents have discovered that fouling off his fastball can be nearly as valuable as hitting it. Keep him working, push his pitch count toward 90, and suddenly the Brewers are asking their bullpen to cover half a championship game.

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, Friday, October 23, 8:00 p.m. ET, American Family Field.

Bookmaker Sportsbook opening line: Brewers -185, Rays +162; over 6.5 (-103), under 6.5 (-109); Brewers -1.5 (+129), Rays +1.5 (-147).

The opening line at Bookmaker Sportsbook tells only part of the story. The real question is whether the latest prices fully reflect the matchup dynamics we’ve examined. Check the current odds and available betting markets at Bookmaker Sportsbook before placing your wagers.

Murphy Knows His Ace Is Tired

Pat Murphy has already acknowledged something that ought to make Milwaukee backers uncomfortable.

After Misiorowski’s demanding NLCS outing, the Brewers manager admitted the youngster’s workload was approaching 190 innings, far beyond his previous experience, and suggested fatigue was a legitimate concern.

The Dodgers forced 21 foul balls on 42 swings against Misiorowski, driving his pitch count to 94 in just 4⅓ innings. San Diego had previously fouled off 30 pitches over four innings.

Those numbers expose a vulnerability that doesn’t require anybody to hit 105 mph. Tampa Bay’s challenge is to turn intimidating velocity into exhausting at-bats. Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda can set that tone, while Junior Caminero provides the threat that keeps Misiorowski from simply attacking the strike zone without consequence.

Eleven days between appearances should help Milwaukee’s starter recover physically. Whether that rest restores his sharpness immediately is another matter.

Cash Has Made a Curious Choice

Kevin Cash surprised the market by selecting Nick Martinez rather than Drew Rasmussen for Game 1.

His explanation was characteristically blunt: “When Nick pitches, we win.” The decision also allows Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta additional recovery time. Martinez isn’t bringing Jacob Misiorowski’s velocity. He brings a different proposition: strike-throwing, changing speeds, and making hitters manufacture their own power.

His 109 strikeouts against 26 walks over 31 regular-season starts underscore the importance of control in his approach. That could frustrate Milwaukee, especially if Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang can’t immediately put pressure on William Contreras.

The danger is obvious. Martinez doesn’t possess the same margin for error when his pitches drift over the plate.

Milwaukee’s Relief Corps Changes the Equation

Here’s where Tampa Bay’s patience could run into a brick wall. Milwaukee’s bullpen owns a 1.33 postseason ERA through 40⅔ innings. Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, and DL Hall have combined for 23⅓ scoreless innings.

Even if Jacob Misiorowski leaves early, the Rays won’t necessarily find easier pitching. But Tampa Bay has its own late-inning weapons, including Cam Booser and Bryan Baker. Baker’s declining fastball velocity in ALCS Game 6 raises genuine concerns about his condition, despite the recovery time before Friday.

Our MLB Betting Hub features additional postseason previews, while the MLB Playoffs Betting Guide explores how pitching depth affects run-line wagers.

The Brewers’ -185 moneyline demands a 64.9% break-even probability. Their superior bullpen makes favoritism reasonable, but Tampa Bay’s ability to extend Jacob Misiorowski’s innings and Martinez’s potential to suppress walks argue against assuming a comfortable Milwaukee victory.

Betting lean: Rays +1.5 (-147). The price requires a 59.5% cover rate. Milwaukee can still win a tight opener, which is precisely why the run line appeals more than Tampa Bay’s outright price. The biggest threat is Martinez surrendering early extra-base damage before the Rays can force Misiorowski into extended counts.

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Data Snapshot

Starting Pitchers: 2026 Regular Season

Pitching information from Sportsnet, MLB, and confirmed World Series starter announcements.

Postseason Relief Comparison