Grisham Leaves Carlos Rodón Less Margin

Carlos Rodón was already carrying an innings question into San Diego. Now the Yankees have another variable. Trent Grisham aggravated his right hamstring Friday, Aaron Boone said imaging would determine whether another injured-list stint is necessary, and Spencer Jones is the obvious candidate to shift into center field if Grisham cannot play.

That matters against Robbie Ray because New York is already without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees have handled left-handed pitching well this season, but Saturday asks a thinner lineup to create enough early offense that Rodón does not need to match Ray inning for inning.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line makes San Diego -112 and New York -101, with Over 7.5 at -120 and Under 7.5 at +106. The pick is San Diego -112.

Carlos Rodón Still Has an Innings Debt

Rodón’s 3.20 ERA looks almost identical to Ray’s 3.14, but the workload underneath those numbers changes the handicap. Rodón has thrown only 59 innings this season after two injured-list stretches, the latest caused by left elbow inflammation. MLB records show he was activated August 18.

His two starts since returning produced only 8⅔ combined innings. The question is therefore not simply whether Rodón can suppress San Diego’s lineup. It is how long Boone can reasonably ask him to do it.

Friday sharpened that concern. Max Fried gave New York 5⅔ innings, but the game reached the 10th and required four Yankees relievers. Paul Blackburn ultimately surrendered the walk-off homer. San Diego also used Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller, with Miller working two innings, so neither bullpen arrives untouched.

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Robbie Ray Has 149 Innings Behind Him

Ray’s advantage is not that he is untouchable. His 1.30 WHIP and 1.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio leave opportunities for a Yankees lineup that can punish mistakes. The difference is that San Diego has been able to treat him as a conventional starter. Ray has already logged 149 innings, 90 more than Rodón, while striking out 126.

His latest start strengthens that argument without settling Saturday’s matchup: six innings, three hits and one earned run against Tampa Bay. Since arriving from San Francisco, he has made five starts with a 3.42 ERA.

New York’s counterargument is substantial. The Yankees are 32-18 against left-handed starters this season. Ray cannot assume the missing Judge and potentially missing Grisham turn this into an accommodating matchup.

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Miller’s Two Innings Change Tonight

San Diego’s late-inning advantage deserves one qualification: Miller threw two innings Friday. That makes another six-out assignment less attractive and increases the value of Ray getting through the middle innings himself.

For New York, Grisham’s injury potentially pushes Jones into center after his go-ahead RBI single Friday. The rookie has produced a .892 OPS across his previous 24 games, giving Boone an increasingly credible alternative rather than merely an emergency replacement.

That leaves the starting-pitcher workload as the cleaner separator.

Betting lean: San Diego Padres -112. Ray offers the more established route into the sixth inning and beyond, while Rodón’s limited post-IL workload creates earlier exposure to a Yankees bullpen that worked into extras Friday. The principal risk is New York’s strong record against left-handed pitching turning Ray’s walks into immediate damage.

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