Four Tour Championship Round 3 Matchups Worth Playing

Two rounds have finally separated useful East Lake evidence from one hot Thursday. Viktor Hovland and Ryan Gerard share the lead at 10-under. Collin Morikawa and Chris Gotterup trail by one. Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young sit another shot back. Nineteen players remain within five shots.

Saturday’s matchup card for the Tour Championship Round 3 gives us four positions: Viktor Hovland -118 over Matt Fitzpatrick, Ryan Gerard -106 over Justin Rose, Chris Gotterup -108 over Cameron Young, and Collin Morikawa +153 over Scottie Scheffler.

This time, several of the golfers have already told us what is working.

Viktor Hovland Found Something He Doesn’t Entirely Trust

Viktor Hovland has opened 64-66.

More interestingly, the part of his game that worried him entering East Lake has behaved. “I found something that seems to be going straight,” Hovland said Friday when asked about his driving.

He isn’t pretending the problem has disappeared. Hovland acknowledged that he drove the ball poorly last week and hasn’t been able to sustain his best driving throughout the season. East Lake has given him two consecutive rounds of evidence anyway.

Hovland also knows exactly what this course looks like under weekend pressure. He won the Tour Championship here in 2023 and begins Saturday tied for the lead.

Bookmaker Sportsbook asks -118 against Matt Fitzpatrick.

That’s still close enough.

Selection: Viktor Hovland -118 over Matt Fitzpatrick

Ryan Gerard’s 80-Footer Hides The Better Number

Ryan Gerard’s Friday 65 included a birdie putt from nearly 80 feet. That is not the reason to back him.

His other six birdie putts were all from inside six feet. Gerard repeatedly put himself close enough that the spectacular one became an outlier rather than the mechanism behind his score.

He has now reached 10-under through 36 holes and shares the lead with Hovland.

There is pressure attached. Gerard knows a strong week could influence the Presidents Cup captain’s picks, but his description of the situation was refreshingly narrow: “I’m playing this week for myself.”

Justin Rose is -124.

Gerard is -106.

Two rounds into the tournament, Bookmaker Sportsbook is still asking us to pay more for the golfer chasing him.

Selection: Ryan Gerard -106 over Justin Rose

Cameron Young’s 62 Creates A Dangerous Question

Cameron Young went from a Thursday 70 to a Friday 62. He hit 13 of 14 fairways, birdied seven holes across a nine-hole stretch, and finished by holing a 41-foot eagle putt.

Young himself supplied the useful warning. “I can pat myself on the back for shooting 8-under, but that doesn’t change how much work there is left.”

Chris Gotterup has taken the quieter route: 64-67.

He described East Lake as “anyone’s ballgame” after Friday and identified the repeatable opportunity clearly: find the fairway, put a good wedge into the receptive greens, and birdies are available.

Bookmaker Sportsbook makes Young -122 and Gotterup -108.

Young produced the spectacular round. Gotterup has produced two good ones.

Selection: Chris Gotterup -108 over Cameron Young

+153 Is Still Too Much Collin Morikawa

We backed Collin Morikawa at +172 against Scottie Scheffler on Friday.

Scheffler won the matchup 67-67. Yes, you read that correctly. They tied.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s Round 2 market was the straight matchup, so the important point for Saturday isn’t pretending Morikawa beat him. It’s that 18 more holes did very little to justify the enormous separation between them.

Morikawa sits one shot behind the leaders at 9-under. Scheffler is another shot back at 8-under.

Morikawa also says the putting improvement that began before East Lake still feels good. His frustration Friday was elsewhere: “I just have to find a few more fairways.”

Scheffler’s 67 included two early bogeys before five birdies in six holes dragged him back into contention. Even Scheffler described the difference from his opening 65 simply: Thursday was clean; Friday wasn’t.

Scheffler is rightly -194.

Morikawa at +153 is still too large.

Selection: Collin Morikawa +153 over Scottie Scheffler

Saturday Rewards What Survived Friday

The Golf Betting Hub carries the wider Tour Championship coverage, while the Golf Betting Guide provides the framework for round matchups and tournament markets.

Saturday’s card:

Viktor Hovland -118 over Matt Fitzpatrick

Ryan Gerard -106 over Justin Rose

Chris Gotterup -108 over Cameron Young

Collin Morikawa +153 over Scottie Scheffler

Hovland is the driving-and-course-history play.

Gerard is the ball-striking play.

Gotterup is the sustainability play.

Morikawa is once again the price play.

Young’s 62 was the round everybody noticed.

Gerard’s six short birdie putts might tell us more about Saturday.

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