Four ATP 2026 US Open Prices Worth Considering

Carlos Alcaraz is the defending champion. Alexander Zverev has won his first Grand Slam. Arthur Fils has just won Cincinnati.

Bookmaker Sportsbook makes Alcaraz the clear favorite at +178, followed by Zverev at +318 and Novak Djokovic at +656.

The shortest price comes with the biggest unknown.

The outright card starts with Zverev +318, passes on Alcaraz at +178 and goes further down the board for Taylor Fritz +1236 and Arthur Fils +1164. Four players. Three bets.

Alexander Zverev Has Something Nobody Else Does

Alexander Zverev arrives as the No. 1 seed and a Grand Slam champion. He won Roland Garros in June, reached the Wimbledon final, and enters New York with an 18-2 record at the majors this season.

Then the draw gave him another advantage. Every former US Open champion in the field landed in the opposite half. Alcaraz, Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic are all below him.

Zverev’s projected quarterfinal is Alex de Minaur. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Flavio Cobolli are the highest seeds elsewhere in his half.

His North American preparation hasn’t been perfect. After losing his opening match in Montreal, Zverev admitted his confidence had taken a hit before Cincinnati.

Paris already showed what happens when a major draw opens around him. At +318, New York has done something similar.

Selection: Alexander Zverev +318

+178 Requires One Enormous Assumption

Carlos Alcaraz was extraordinary before his season stopped. He went 22-3, won the Australian Open and became the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam. He also owns a 24-3 career record at the US Open and has won New York twice.

Then April happened. A right wrist injury removed Alcaraz from Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros, Queen’s, Wimbledon, Canada and Cincinnati.

His first competitive singles match in more than four months will be at the US Open. “I’m back,” was Alcaraz’s message when he finally confirmed his return.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s +178 asks us to assume he is coming back as the same player.

The draw offers little room for rehabilitation. Ben Shelton or Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils could await in the quarterfinals, with Djokovic projected for the semifinal.

Alcaraz may still defend his title. At +178, someone else can pay to find out whether four months away mattered.

Verdict: Pass Carlos Alcaraz +178

Taylor Fritz Has Already Solved New York Once

Taylor Fritz doesn’t need a hypothetical path to the second week. He reached the 2024 US Open final.

Now he returns after a North American summer that included victory in Washington and three wins in Cincinnati before Brandon Nakashima stopped him in the quarterfinals.

Washington was particularly useful evidence. Fritz dominated behind serve throughout the week and beat Rafael Jodar in the final after previously saving match point against Alex Michelsen.

The draw gives him time to settle. Fritz opens against 18-year-old Darwin Blanch. Francisco Cerundolo is his first projected seeded opponent, with Flavio Cobolli potentially waiting in the fourth round.

Zverev doesn’t appear until a possible semifinal. Fritz thanked his team in Washington and joked that after several runner-up speeches, it was nice to finally give one “as a winner.”

New York requires considerably more. +1236 pays accordingly.

Selection: Taylor Fritz +1236

Cincinnati Put Arthur Fils In The Wrong Part Of The Draw

Arthur Fils beat Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 to win Cincinnati. It was his first Masters 1000 title and moved him to a career-high No. 11 after a tournament in which he defeated three Top-20 opponents.

His serve provides more than the trophy photograph. Fils is producing the best service-games-won season of his career.

After the final, he reduced the breakthrough to three words: “That feels good.”

The draw feels considerably worse.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is waiting immediately. Fils then shares a section containing Ben Shelton, Jiri Lehecka and Cameron Norrie. Survive that and Alcaraz is the projected quarterfinal opponent.

Normally that would be enough to move elsewhere. But +1164 changes the calculation.

Fils arrives with seven consecutive wins, a Masters title and hard-court tennis strong enough to beat exactly the caliber of opponent his draw keeps placing in front of him.

Selection: Arthur Fils +1164

2026 US Open: Three Bets Survive A Strange Draw

The Tennis Betting Hub features our wider 2026 US Open coverage, while the ATP Betting Guide provides a framework for comparing outright prices, draw position and match markets throughout the tournament.

For the men’s outright market:

Alexander Zverev +318

Taylor Fritz +1236

Arthur Fils +1164

Carlos Alcaraz +178: Pass

Zverev is the draw-and-major-form play.

Fritz is the New York history-and-price play.

Fils is the current-form play.

Alcaraz remains the player most capable of making the entire exercise look silly. Four months without competitive tennis makes +178 a very expensive way to find out.

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