Foster Griffin Interrupts Sonny Gray’s October Rehearsal

Sonny Gray is 17-5 with a 2.82 ERA. Foster Griffin has a 3.67 ERA and has been substantially less convincing since Cleveland acquired him. Excellent. Case closed.

Except Bookmaker Sportsbook is asking only -130 for Gray at Fenway. That is not the price of a mismatch. It is the price of a favorite carrying luggage.

Boston has already clinched a Wild Card berth and is preparing its rotation for October. Cleveland enters Wednesday still leading the AL Central. Meanwhile, Willson Contreras is recovering from a bruised right hand, Ceddanne Rafaela remains out with a quad strain, and Aroldis Chapman has been working back from lat tightness.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line: Guardians +115, Red Sox -130; Guardians +1.5 (-188), Red Sox -1.5 (+163); Over 7 (-115), Under 7 (+102). Pick: Guardians +115.

Sonny Gray Is Supposed To Cost More

Gray has pitched like Boston’s ace because, for practical purposes, he has been one. He enters his final scheduled regular-season start at 17-5 with a 2.82 ERA and has delivered quality starts in four of his last five appearances. Boston is lining him up as a central piece of its postseason rotation.

And Bookmaker Sportsbook wants -130. That is an interesting number.

The MLB Betting Hub contains more guides and game previews from the September schedule.

Griffin Has Been Weirdly Expensive

Griffin’s Cleveland results are not pretty enough to decorate the refrigerator. He enters with a 15-5 record and 3.67 ERA, but his Cleveland ERA has run considerably above his underlying FIP. The problem has been turning decent underlying work into clean innings, rather than a sudden disappearance of major-league stuff.

Against a healthy Boston lineup, that distinction might receive considerably less sympathy. This isn’t one.

Contreras has only recently regained the ability to grip a bat after being hit on the right hand. Rafaela has been out since September 3. Boston is also balancing immediate results against getting important bodies ready for next week.

The MLB Playoffs Betting Guide contains additional guides and articles covering the postseason race.

Cleveland Still Has Somewhere To Go

Here is the part the standings make unpleasant for Boston backers. Boston already owns its October invitation. Cleveland still holds only a narrow AL Central advantage, with Chicago owning the tiebreaker if the teams finish level.

That does not magically make Cleveland hit Gray. It does change what happens around him.

Boston’s late-game planning includes Chapman’s recent lat issue and an organization openly preparing its roster and pitching staff for the Wild Card round. Cleveland’s September bullpen entered this series with a 2.29 ERA, giving Stephen Vogt legitimate leverage if Griffin can keep the game attached through five.

Minus 130 Is Suspiciously Polite

Sonny Gray is better than Griffin. Boston has home field. And the Red Sox are only -130. Sometimes the market whispers instead of screaming.

At +115, Cleveland is being asked to survive Gray, reach a Boston club managing several October considerations, and turn the game over to one of baseball’s better September bullpens. I’ll take the plus sign.

Prediction: Guardians 4, Red Sox 3.

Betting lean: Guardians +115.

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