Diamondbacks Get Their Missing Piece Back

Philadelphia is -120 at Bookmaker Sportsbook, Arizona +106, with the total at 8.5.

The pick is Diamondbacks +106.

Arizona enters Monday’s series opener with something it has not had since August 16: Ketel Marte in the lineup.

The Diamondbacks plan to activate Marte from the injured list before facing Aaron Nola at Chase Field. His left knee has been through batting practice, a bridge-camp game and further baseball work during a deliberately managed buildup.

Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt starts for Arizona after becoming almost unrecognizable from the pitcher sent to Triple-A Reno in June.

What Does Ketel Marte Look Like Tonight?

Marte has not played a major-league game in two weeks. That makes his return more complicated than simply adding a .249 hitter with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs. Arizona is inserting one of its most important bats directly into a Wild Card race after an unusual absence and a knee problem that had already bothered him before he went on the IL.

Torey Lovullo made the immediate objective clear during Ketel Marte’s buildup. “If it’s possible to get him ready for Philly, we would definitely take the at-bats.”

Those at-bats now arrive against Nola. Nola’s 5.03 ERA disguises a substantial second-half improvement. He has allowed only nine earned runs across his last five starts, striking out 37 in 29 innings. His knucklecurve has again become the pitch capable of separating him from hitters when his fastballs do not.

Arizona therefore gets Marte back against a pitcher currently performing considerably better than his season ERA advertises.

Reno Sent Back Someone Different

Pfaadt presents the opposite statistical problem. His 3.51 ERA looks good. The route to it is much more interesting.

Arizona sent him to Reno with a 5.92 ERA. Mechanical changes followed, and since returning June 30, Pfaadt has attacked the strike zone with a broader mix of four-seamers, two-seamers, cutters and breaking balls.

Lovullo described the transformation earlier this month: “He’s absolutely filling up the zone.”

Pfaadt then produced consecutive seven-inning, two-hit shutouts against the Dodgers and Braves before Boston and Chicago finally interrupted the run. The pitcher Philadelphia sees Monday is not the pitcher Arizona demoted in June.

The MLB Betting Hub and MLB Playoffs Betting Guide provide the wider postseason context. Arizona enters this series occupying a Wild Card fight in which one returning hitter can immediately change the shape of the lineup.

Why Is Arizona Still Plus Money?

Philadelphia arrives hot, having won 13 of its last 15, and Nola’s recent improvement makes -120 understandable.

The schedule adds another layer. The Phillies played Sunday afternoon in Anaheim before traveling to Phoenix. Arizona had Sunday off after Saturday’s doubleheader in San Francisco. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen therefore enters Monday with a full day between appearances.

Philadelphia used Jhoan Duran for two innings Saturday and Orion Kerkering to close Sunday’s 5-2 victory.

Arizona gets the rested bullpen, Pfaadt at home and Marte back.

At +106, that is enough.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 4-3.

Betting lean: Arizona +106.

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