Deuce Bailey Picked the Wrong Shootout

Deuce Bailey is not playing quarterback cautiously. Neither is Deshawn Purdie.

Both rank among the nation’s most aggressive quarterbacks by average depth of target, creating the possibility that Thursday night’s Liberty-Coastal Carolina game gets decided several yards beyond where most offenses begin taking risks. The difference is what waits for each quarterback on the other side. Coastal’s pass defense has been considerably more vulnerable than Liberty’s through three games.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line makes Liberty -2.5 (-116), Coastal Carolina +2.5 (+100), Over 50.5 (-108), Under 50.5 (-108), Liberty -136 and Coastal Carolina +120.

Purdie Hasn’t Paid the Tax Yet

Purdie’s first three Liberty starts have produced 563 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Against Ball State, he completed 13 of 20 passes for 211 yards and three first-half touchdowns before Liberty used four quarterbacks.

That matters more than the 51 points Liberty scored. Purdie’s willingness to push the ball vertically has not yet produced the turnover bill normally attached to aggressive quarterbacking. Coastal now presents another invitation: its defense entered this matchup ranked 109th nationally in EPA per pass and 113th in early-down EPA per play.

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Deuce Bailey Gets the More Expensive Window

Bailey followed head coach Ryan Beard and offensive coordinator Nick Petrino from Missouri State to Coastal Carolina, giving the redshirt freshman familiarity with the system despite this being Beard’s first season in Conway.

The problem is not Bailey’s appetite for the deep ball. It is Liberty’s ability to make those attempts costlier.

Liberty enters Thursday ranked 19th nationally in EPA per pass allowed, according to Covers’ current matchup data. Deuce Bailey therefore gets the same broad invitation to attack vertically as Purdie, but not the same defensive accommodation.

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Chadwell Knows the Building, Not Bailey

Jamey Chadwell’s return to Conway is irresistible theater. He coached Coastal Carolina for five seasons and went 39-22 there.

But Ryan Beard’s Coastal is not Chadwell’s old team wearing different numbers. Beard assembled 56 additions, including 38 transfers, after taking the job. Bailey is one of the players who came with him from Missouri State.

That makes familiarity an imperfect advantage. The cleaner edge is contemporary: Purdie has attacked deep without an interception, Coastal has struggled to defend the pass, and Deuce Bailey faces the more resistant secondary.

Prediction: Liberty 30, Coastal Carolina 24.

Betting Lean: Liberty -2.5 (-116).

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