Davis Martin Returns With Something to Prove

Davis Martin returns to the White Sox rotation Wednesday after a blister ripped skin from his pitching finger badly enough to put him on the injured list.

The timing could hardly be better. Chicago leads the AL Central at 73-65. Houston’s AL West lead has shrunk to one game at 70-69. Opposite Martin is Hayden Wesneski, himself only six starts removed from Tommy John surgery.

Houston’s opening line is -138 at Bookmaker Sportsbook, Chicago +122, with the total at 8.5.

The pick is White Sox +122.

Which Davis Martin Comes Back?

Martin’s season contains two almost incompatible pitchers. Through May 16, his ERA was 1.61. Across the next 15 starts, it was 6.52. Then a blister compromised his grip and eventually sent him to the IL.

His rehab start offered something different. Martin threw five scoreless innings for Triple-A Charlotte last Thursday, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out five. Forty of his 59 pitches were strikes, with only two hard-hit balls allowed.

Before the injury, Martin had acknowledged the inconsistency in his command, yet remained convinced the better version was still there. “There are signs where you see it and signs when you lose it.” Wednesday is his first major-league evidence since the reset.

Wesneski Still Doesn’t Feel Normal

Houston’s starter has already crossed that bridge. Wesneski returned from Tommy John surgery in late July and carries a 3.86 ERA through 32⅔ innings. His last two starts have been particularly sharp: one earned run across 10 innings against the Athletics and Yankees.

Yet Wesneski’s own description of his recovery is more revealing than the ERA. “I feel a little bit off, but I think I’m throwing strikes.”

He has noticed less explosiveness in his delivery than before surgery. Houston has noticed too. Joe Espada said the club is watching Wesneski’s velocity and workload closely as September begins.

That matters because Houston’s bullpen entered this stretch carrying its own workload problem. Astros starters had not completed six innings between August 10 and August 26, pushing increasingly heavy traffic toward the relievers.

Five Innings Could Change the Price

Houston’s -138 assumes more certainty than this matchup contains.

Wesneski has been excellent across his last two starts, but Houston is still managing a pitcher in the first month of his return from major elbow surgery.

Martin is the larger unknown. His final rehab appearance, however, produced exactly what had disappeared before the blister: strikes throughout his arsenal.

The MLB Betting Hub and MLB Playoffs Betting Guide provide the wider September picture. Here, Chicago’s +122 price leaves room for uncertainty that Houston’s -138 does not.

Prediction: White Sox 5-4.

Betting lean: Chicago +122.

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