Buffalo Gives Mike McDaniel No Recovery Time

Mike McDaniel has had enough of pretending the Chargers’ offense is merely warming up. “I don’t think it’s a secret,” Los Angeles’ offensive coordinator said this week. “Plain and simple, it’s below our expectations.”

That is an inconvenient confession before visiting an offense averaging 9.1 yards on first down and scoring touchdowns on 47.6% of its possessions. Los Angeles enters 0-2, averaging 14 points; Buffalo is 2-0 after scoring 77.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line: Chargers +7 (-105), Bills -7 (-111); Over 50.5 (-103), Under 50.5 (-113); Chargers +281, Bills -334. Pick: Bills -7 (-111).

Herbert Gets Another Offensive Line

The Chargers aren’t repairing Mike McDaniel’s offense with a settled front. Left guard Kayode Awosika and tackle Trey Pipkins III are out. Trevor Penning is positioned to enter the left-guard equation, while Rashawn Slater and Cole Strange were cleared after appearing on the injury report. Penning played 30 snaps last week, including 19 at left guard.

That matters because Los Angeles ranks 30th in offensive EPA per play (-0.180) and 25th in success rate. McDaniel has discussed simplifying an offense that has looked disjointed, but Herbert rejected complexity as an excuse: “It’s just on us to be studying our stuff and making sure we’re ready to go.”

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Buffalo Keeps Erasing Second Down

Josh Allen’s five passing touchdowns have come without an interception. Buffalo leads the league in scoring and offensive EPA per play, but the nastier number is that 9.1 yards per first-down play.

Los Angeles’ defense has actually supplied one encouraging counterweight. Its run defense ranks fifth in EPA per play, while James Cook enters with 192 rushing yards at 5.6 per carry.

So Chris O’Leary’s defense gets an unpleasant choice. Buffalo’s conventional rushing game already stresses one of Los Angeles’ strengths; Allen then turns broken passing plays into a completely different running game.

Derwin James identified the problem precisely: when Allen extends plays, Buffalo can turn them into “eight, 10 second plays.”

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Allen May Lose Two Targets

There is one legitimate objection to laying seven. Buffalo receivers DJ Moore and Keon Coleman are both questionable and game-time decisions. Moore is dealing with a shoulder injury and Coleman an ankle injury. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is also questionable, although he progressed to a full Friday practice. Buffalo will get running back Ty Johnson back from his hamstring injury.

Joe Brady has already prepared contingencies in the receiver room. That uncertainty makes -334 impossible to love. It doesn’t repair Los Angeles.

Seven Points Test McDaniel’s Repairs

The Bills don’t require another 38-point afternoon to cover this. Los Angeles needs enough offensive improvement to keep Buffalo from repeatedly getting the ball against a defense already occupied with Allen, Cook, and extended plays. David Njoku is on injured reserve, Charlie Kolar is out following forearm surgery, leaving Oronde Gadsden II with an expanded tight-end role.

Mike McDaniel called the first two weeks’ lessons. Buffalo is a rather aggressive examination.

Prediction: Bills 31, Chargers 20.

Betting lean: Bills -7 (-111).

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