Buffalo Finds Drake Maye Behind Spare Parts

Drake Maye has thrown six interceptions in three games. Buffalo now gets to ask him questions from behind an offensive line being rebuilt during the exam.

Starting guard Greg Van Roten is on injured reserve. Right tackle Morgan Moses missed Wednesday with a foot injury. Maye himself is listed with a right shoulder issue, although his full practice participation removes any current basis for treating his availability as doubtful.

Mike Vrabel has already identified the problem underneath the turnovers: New England has been trying to make too much happen. His prescription was revealing: “Do you do less and try to do it better?”

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line: Patriots +6.5 (+101), Bills -6.5 (-118); Over 48.5 (-108), Under 48.5 (-108); Patriots +269, Bills -319. Pick: Bills -6.5 (-118).

Drake Maye Is Being Asked For Less

That sounds counterintuitive for a quarterback walking into Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog. It isn’t.

Maye has one touchdown pass against six interceptions. Vrabel specifically criticized the impulse to “choke the life out of every play” and has emphasized decisiveness over chasing perfection.

The problem is that simplification works considerably better when the five men in front of the quarterback are settled.

Van Roten is gone for at least four games. Moses’ Wednesday absence makes the right side another live question. New England signed offensive lineman Da’Metrius Weatherspoon to its practice squad this week, further evidence of the depth problem rather than proof of any Sunday role.

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Buffalo Can Hide The Second Rusher

Buffalo defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard does not require reckless pressure to make this uncomfortable.

The Bills can threaten Drake Maye with simulated pressure and late movement while asking their front to exploit protection uncertainty. The attraction is obvious: force a quarterback already struggling with decisions to diagnose bodies before the snap, then change the picture afterward.

Buffalo has its own injury concern in the secondary. Starting corner Christian Benford missed Wednesday with a toe injury after leaving the Chargers game, and Leonhard has identified rookie Davison Igbinosun as a possible replacement after deliberately rotating him into earlier games.

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Allen’s Knee Is Not The Story

Josh Allen emerged from Buffalo’s Week 3 win with an injury serious enough to raise concerns, but Joe Brady said Monday that he wasn’t worried about his quarterback. Buffalo’s Wednesday injury report did not list Allen.

The Bills instead have uncertainty around Keon Coleman, who missed Wednesday with an ankle injury, while DJ Moore was limited by his shoulder.

Six And A Half Punishes Mistakes

Buffalo is 3-0. New England is 1-2 and arrives after scoring six points in Jacksonville. Those facts alone are not a handicap. Maye’s current problem is.

Vrabel is trying to make his quarterback play smaller, faster and more decisively at precisely the moment his protection is becoming less predictable.

At -6.5, I’m betting Buffalo makes New England pay for the protection problem. Maye has six interceptions already. Put an unsettled offensive line in front of him, and Leonhard’s defense across from him, and +101 isn’t enough to make the Patriots attractive.

Prediction: Bills 30, Patriots 20.

Betting lean: Bills -6.5 (-118).

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