Boston Gets Bryan Woo’s New Pitch Mix

Pick: Seattle Mariners +111
Secondary lean: Under 7.5 (-125)

Bryan Woo has already identified the adjustment he intends to bring into Fenway Park: fewer predictable fastballs and more pitching off the rest of his arsenal. Boston gets the first examination of whether that change holds, with Roman Anthony and Trevor Story back in the lineup and Willson Contreras unavailable.

Seattle has lost five straight, but the +111 opening line at Bookmaker Sportsbook is the side worth taking. The unresolved question is whether Woo’s adjustment from Philadelphia lasts longer than Boston’s improvised pitching plan.

Bryan Woo Told Everyone What Went Wrong

Woo’s return against Philadelphia ended after four innings and six earned runs. The radar gun was not the problem. He reached 99 mph, including a 98.5 mph four-seamer to strike out Trea Turner.

Woo identified something more useful afterward: he had become too fastball-heavy. “It was too much throwing, not enough pitching.”

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both homered before Woo adjusted. His four-seamer usage had already been running around 47%, and Philadelphia entered the game having seen elevated fastball rates from Seattle throughout that series.

Boston now gets the next version. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story returned from lengthy IL absences Sunday, and Anthony tripled Monday. Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Mickey Gasper give Boston several left-handed or switch-hitting looks around them. Willson Contreras, however, is out with a hamstring strain after leading Boston with 26 homers and 79 RBIs.

How Much Can Boston Ask Of Paez?

Paez’s recent Triple-A work is far more interesting than his 18.00 ERA in three brief MLB relief appearances with the White Sox earlier this season. Since moving to Worcester, he has struck out 18 and walked two in 12⅓ innings, including eight strikeouts over five innings of one-run ball in his latest start.

His calling card has been command rather than overpowering stuff. Baseball America describes a pitcher who changes shapes and speeds while consistently working in the strike zone.

Seattle can answer with something Paez has never faced in Triple-A: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor in succession. Raleigh enters as the reigning AL Player of the Week, while Arozarena had four hits Monday.

Monday Took Away Boston’s Safety Net

Boston needed five relievers in Monday’s 10-inning game, eventually using Aroldis Chapman in the tenth. Seattle also used Andrés Muñoz and newly activated Cooper Criswell, who threw the final inning. That puts unusual weight on Paez’s innings.

Readers looking beyond Tuesday’s matchup can find the latest game previews, betting analysis, and supporting resources in our MLB Betting Hub. The MLB Playoffs Betting Guide context adds urgency for Seattle, now 64-74 and five games behind both the AL West lead and final wild-card position entering the series.

Betting Lean: Seattle Mariners +111

Secondary Lean: Under 7.5 (-125)

Prediction: Mariners 4, Red Sox 3

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