Borjas Knows Exactly What Rei Tsuruya Wants

Kevin Borjas is not pretending Rei Tsuruya’s game is a mystery.

Rei Tsuruya has already said what he sees: Borjas’ left body shot and right straight counter are the weapons he has to avoid before he can get to the submission. Borjas has answered with equal simplicity. After upsetting previously unbeaten Andre Lima in June, he says the nerves are gone, and he is coming to Shanghai expecting a knockout.

Bookmaker Sportsbook prices Tsuruya at -740 and Borjas at +529. Under 2.5 rounds is -150.

Can Borjas Make The First Shot Hurt?

Tsuruya averages 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.01 submission attempts. More revealingly, 59% of his significant strikes have landed on the ground. He is not shooting simply to score position; he is trying to turn the first scramble into the beginning of the finish.

Borjas’ 73% takedown defense gives him a credible first layer. The danger comes immediately afterward.

Tsuruya chains attempts, follows hips and attacks the back quickly enough that one defended shot can still become a worse position thirty seconds later. Borjas needs the entry itself to carry a price.

His own description of the knockout route points there: left body work, then the right counter once Tsuruya closes distance.

Joshua Van Left Both Men Evidence

Both men have already fought the current champion, Joshua Van. Borjas was outlanded 156-75 in 2023 and lost a decision. Tsuruya lost to Van in 2025 despite landing four takedowns, with Van still winning the significant-strike count 59-32.

The lesson is different for each.

Borjas has since shown better patience and cleaner boxing, most recently handing Andre Lima his first professional defeat. Tsuruya has already corrected his own loss with a first-round submission of Luis Gurule after 14 months away.

What Happens If Borjas Survives Round One?

Tsuruya has five first-round finishes and four more in Round 2. His career has been built around making opponents solve grappling problems before they have established any rhythm.

Borjas has a different kind of durability. His average UFC fight time is 12:59, and his three UFC wins have all come by decision. He absorbs 5.27 significant strikes per minute, but most of his work still happens standing, where 94% of his landed significant strikes have occurred.

If Borjas gets through the first round without conceding long top-control sequences, the fight becomes more interesting.

Tsuruya will still own the grappling edge, but every additional entry gives Borjas more time to read the setup and find the counter he has already identified.

The MMA/UFC Betting Hub and UFC Betting Guide are useful here because the price is not merely about records. It is about how often Tsuruya can force Borjas out of the phase where his best weapons exist.

Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas Fight Prediction

Borjas has enough power and improved composure to make the early exchanges dangerous. Tsuruya still has the more repeatable route.

His takedown volume, submission threat, and ability to turn scrambles into offense should eventually force Borjas into longer defensive sequences than he wants.

The technical prediction is Rei Tsuruya by second-round submission.

Betting Analysis

Bookmaker Sportsbook makes Tsuruya -740 and Borjas +529.

The moneyline is too expensive to offer much standalone appeal.

The total is more interesting. Under 2.5 rounds at -150 matches Tsuruya’s finishing profile and Borjas’ vulnerability once opponents begin controlling the grappling phase.

Betting Lean

The lean is Under 2.5 rounds (-150).

Borjas has a live knockout path. Tsuruya has more ways to end the fight once it reaches the mat.

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Odds subject to change without notice.

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