Andrew Painter’s First Inning Comes First

Andrew Painter has been considerably better since returning from Triple-A, but Arizona gets the part of him that remains unresolved before anything else: the first inning.

Bookmaker Sportsbook‘s opening line has Philadelphia at -111 and Arizona at -102, with the Phillies at -1.5 (+137) and the total set at 9.5.

Prediction: Phillies 5-4 Diamondbacks

Betting Lean: Philadelphia -111

Ten Runs Arrived Before the Second

Since Painter returned from Triple-A on July 31, 10 of the 14 runs he has allowed have come in the first inning.

His latest start provided another version of the problem. Painter needed 28 pitches to escape the opening inning before settling down, later describing himself as “a little trigger-happy early.”

“Trying to rip those things I think got me in bad positions,” Andrew Painter said.

That makes Wednesday unusually simple for him. Painter does not need to rediscover his stuff. His previous outing included six innings with only two hits allowed. He needs the delivery and command he finds later in games to arrive immediately.

Arizona has enough at the top of the lineup to punish another delayed adjustment.

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Marte Adds Another Early Test

Ketel Marte is expected to return to second base after serving as the designated hitter in his first two games back.

That potentially restores another switch-hitter near the middle of Torey Lovullo’s lineup alongside Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno.

Painter’s fastball velocity is not the concern. He touched 99.6 mph during his career-best seven-inning outing in August. Location has been more important, particularly when his delivery accelerates and misses drift glove-side.

If Arizona can force him into traffic immediately, the Diamondbacks can attack the one portion of the game where Philadelphia’s starter has remained vulnerable.

Arizona Opens With Yesterday’s Reliever

Taylor Clarke is listed as Arizona’s starter after throwing a scoreless inning Tuesday.

Clarke has worked exclusively as a reliever this season, appearing 62 times, so Wednesday begins as a bullpen game rather than a conventional starter matchup. That gives Lovullo flexibility, but it also asks Arizona to cover nine innings one day after using four relievers behind Eduardo Rodriguez.

For a Diamondbacks team fighting for an NL Wild Card place, the bullpen calculus is part of the broader race covered in our MLB Playoffs Betting Guide.

Philadelphia therefore has the more stable route if Painter survives the opening inning. At nearly even money, that is enough to prefer the Phillies rather than asking them to cover 1.5 runs.

Prediction: Phillies 5-4 Diamondbacks

Betting Lean: Philadelphia -111

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