Amanda Anisimova Has Found Her Tennis Again. Now She Has to Solve Pegula.

Amanda Anisimova needed 68 minutes to remove Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova from Cincinnati.

Jessica Pegula needed two hours and five minutes to survive Sorana Cirstea.

They meet Thursday for a place in the semifinals, with Anisimova coming off perhaps her cleanest performance since returning from the wrist injury that cost her two months earlier this season. She beat Noskova 6-1, 6-4, won the final 15 points of the opening set and never faced a break point. Pegula advanced 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 after a third set in which neither player could hold the match still for very long.

Anisimova has played Pegula five times. She has lost five times, including matches in which Anisimova played extremely well.

Dubai Is the Match Worth Remembering

Their February semifinal in Dubai contains almost everything relevant to Thursday. Anisimova overwhelmed Pegula early. She won the opening set 6-1, moved 3-1 ahead in the second, and repeatedly took time away with the backhand. Pegula eventually recovered to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-3.

The statistics show how narrow the match became. Pegula won 93 points to Anisimova’s 91. Both converted four break points. Anisimova struck seven aces to Pegula’s two and landed 72.6% of first serves.

Pegula’s adjustment came through rally tolerance and return position rather than an attempt to outhit her.

Once she began extending exchanges beyond Anisimova’s first acceleration, the American had to produce another aggressive ball from a less comfortable position. Pegula also won 53.8% of points against Anisimova’s second serve, keeping pressure on service games after the first delivery disappeared.

Anisimova’s Timing Has Returned in Cincinnati

Anisimova described Wednesday’s victory over Noskova as a significant step after weeks of trying to rediscover her game following the wrist injury.

The numbers were unusually clean. She landed 67.9% of first serves, won 73.7% of those points and 77.8% behind the second serve, and did not face a break point. Noskova won only 28 of the 63 points played.

Anisimova’s backhand becomes particularly destructive when she can hold her position close to the baseline. The preparation is compact enough to redirect pace without giving ground, and Cincinnati rewards that early contact.

Pegula presents a different problem from Noskova. She absorbs pace without automatically surrendering court position. Her compact groundstrokes allow her to redirect rather than defend, especially through the backhand exchange. Anisimova therefore has fewer obvious opportunities to step forward after one heavy strike.

Pegula’s Previous Round Was Much Messier

Pegula reached 6-4, 4-2 against Cirstea before the match changed. Cirstea served and struck her forehand more effectively; Pegula missed opportunities on return, and momentum shifted. Pegula eventually escaped 7-5 in the third despite repeated breaks of serve.

That workload creates an interesting contrast. Anisimova spent 68 minutes against Noskova and controlled virtually every service game. Pegula spent 125 minutes negotiating wind, momentum swings, and a third set in which holds became scarce.

The Tennis Betting Hub provides useful context here because the head-to-head and immediate form pull in opposite directions. The WTA Betting Guide offers the relevant framework: Anisimova’s current level can be genuine without erasing the specific patterns that have repeatedly favored Pegula.

The First Four Shots Should Shape the Match

Anisimova needs short rallies without rushing them. Her first serve can create those conditions. Against Noskova, she won 21 of 28 service points and allowed no break opportunities. A similar serving level would reduce Pegula’s ability to establish the return patterns that changed Dubai.

Pegula needs the opposite. A deep return through the middle removes Anisimova’s immediate angles. One additional neutral ball can push the rally towards movement, recovery, and repeated shot tolerance rather than pure first-strike tennis.

Their five previous meetings have repeatedly moved through those two versions of the match.

Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica Pegula Betting Analysis

Bookmaker Sportsbook lists Pegula at -135, with Anisimova at +110. Pegula is -1.5 games at -112, while Anisimova receives +1.5 at -109. The total sits at 22 games, with over -106 and under -115.

The price is notably restrained for a 5-0 head-to-head.

Anisimova’s Cincinnati performance explains part of it. She has won three consecutive matches here, her longest run at an event since Dubai, and the Noskova victory was her strongest performance of the tournament.

Three of the five previous meetings went three sets. Their Dubai semifinal produced 26 games despite Pegula winning only two games in the opening set.

Betting Lean

Anisimova arrives with the cleaner immediate form and considerably less mileage from Wednesday.

Pegula brings five completed solutions to this particular matchup. Her ability to absorb the first strike, extend the neutral phase and attack Anisimova’s second serve has survived different surfaces and different versions of both players.

At -135, the price does not require much separation.

Betting Lean: Jessica Pegula Moneyline (-135)

Projected Score: Jessica Pegula 4-6, 7-5, 6-4

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Data Snapshot

Metric	Jessica Pegula	Amanda Anisimova
WTA Ranking	No. 3	No. 10*
Cincinnati Seed	No. 3	No. 9
Age	32	24
Height	5’7″	5’11”
Career-High Ranking	No. 3	No. 3
2026 W/L	35-9	16-9*
2026 Singles Titles	2	0*
Career H2H	5-0	0-5
2026 H2H	2-0	0-2
2026 Australian Open	Won	Lost
2026 Dubai	Won 1-6, 6-4, 6-3	Lost 6-1, 4-6, 3-6
Cincinnati Previous Round	d. Cirstea 6-4, 4-6, 7-5	d. Noskova 6-1, 6-4
Previous Match Duration	2h 05m	1h 08m
Previous Match Sets Lost	1	0
Previous Match Break Points Faced	Multiple	0