NFL Picks – The 5 most common mistakes
Betting on professional football can be a big money-maker if you know what you are doing provided you know what to avoid when making your NFL picks.
Betting on professional football can be a big money-maker if you know what you are doing provided you know what to avoid when making your picks. We’ll go over the 5 most common mistakes with NFL picks, so you can get the most out of your betting.
NFL picks are the most common form of sports wagering and – my apologies to baseball – this is truly “America’s Pastime”. Unfortunately, I’ve seen gamblers make the same avoidable mistakes on NFL picks time after time. They could easily shore up their knowledge of NFL handicapping with a few quick tweaks that would increase their profit margins on NFL picks. Here are the 5 most common mistakes to avoid when making NFL picks to bring your personal handicapping to the next level.
1 – Handicapping the Weather
Many gamblers making NFL picks simply forget to factor in the weather when deciding on who they will bet on during the given week. Taking weather into account for NFL picks is crucial because lots of rain can completely shut down a high-powered passing attack and it can also slow down some of the fastest running backs in the game today. Always check the weather report before making your NFL picks because it can affect the outcome of any NFL game. The only types of teams that seem to achieve regular success in rainy or snowy games are those with bruising running backs that don’t require speed or slick moves to advance the pile.
2 – Make Sure to Get the Best NFL Odds
Predicting line movement when making NFL picks is one of the toughest things to learn at first, but figuring out how to do so successfully means a lot in terms of making money from your NFL picks. If you like a bet that is probably going to be a public favorite, make sure to get in early. If you like one where you feel the money will come in on the other side, then you should wait to make your NFL picks right before kickoff. The difference between a +7 and a +7.5 could easily turn a push into a win, so make sure to do your homework when line shopping.
3 – Check the Injury Report
Some injuries are obviously more important than others when making NFL picks, but don’t discount minor injuries that could really influence the game. The loss of a guy like Peyton Manning will adjust the odds on your NFL picks in a big way, while the loss of an All-Pro center won’t do much in this regard. Offensive and defensive lines seem to be the most overlooked, so make sure to research possible replacements before making your NFL picks if some of the unheralded players that make things happen aren’t going to be in action.
4 – Manage Your Money
We’ve all thought at one point that $100 in NFL picks could be a $5000 payout if you just hit 5 or 6 games in a row. It’s normal. That being said, even the professionals don’t hit 75% of their NFL picks and you should try to avoid putting all your eggs in one basket if you want to build your bankroll. You never know when a star player is going to leave in the 1st quarter with an injury, so you should make reasonable bets with the knowledge that anything could happen. Most say that 2-3% of your bankroll is an acceptable amount to wager on NFL picks, but 10-20% will do if you want a bigger thrill. But never assume you’ll hit 90% just because you’ve won your fantasy football league the previous three seasons.
5 – Don’t Ever Think It Will Be Easy
The fact of the matter is that weird things happen in this sport and you have to figure that into the equation when making your NFL picks. I remember a game back in 2006 where I had wagered on the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Tennessee Titans thinking that I could bet a large chunk of my bankroll because it would be easy. I was only half right. The Jaguars outgained the Titans in yardage by a 396-98 final tally that should have resulted in a big Jacksonville win. Unfortunately, David Garrard decided he wanted to be a turnover machine every time the Jaguars were about to score and I had to cry my way through Tennessee’s 83-yard interception return for a touchdown, 92 yard fumble return for a touchdown, and a 61-yard interception return for a touchdown.
What all this means is that the Titans won a 24-17 game and I lost a bet. Losses happen and bad breaks can knock even the savviest bettor down a few notches. Just realize you won’t win them all, but don’t let it influence your future NFL picks.