Mixed martial arts is still fairly new to the betting scene and we wanted to make sure everyone is on the same page with a report we’d like to call “UFC Picks for Dummies”.
Dana White and the Fertitta Brothers have taken the Ultimate Fighting Championship to heights never seen before, and it’s the fastest growing sport in the world. The great thing about learning to handicap a sport like this in the early stages is that you get some great values on your UFC picks because the lines are still somewhat “soft” when compared to those of other popular professional sports. We’ll go down the different ways to make your UFC picks in hopes of motivating a few new handicappers to get going in this great up-and-coming sporting event.
Like most forms of sports betting, there are common and uncommon ways to make your UFC picks. The most common way to bet on the UFC would be to pick a fighter that you think will win and make a wager. All fights have a money line number assigned to it that tells you what odds you are going to get. Making UFC picks is simple: a number like -200 denotes that you’d have to risk $200 to win $100 while a +300 means that you’d simply risk $100 to win $300. The “+” sign means the fighter is an underdog while the “-“denotes the favorite. The only way the bet wouldn’t result in a win or a loss is in the event the fight is ruled a draw. In the case of a draw, your UFC picks will be refunded in full regardless of the fighter you wagered on.
That used to be the only way to make UFC picks before the sport got popular, but now you have plenty of different betting options thanks to the online sportsbooks. Some of the more popular ways to make UFC picks are to bet on how many rounds the fight lasts, how your chosen fighter will win the fight, fastest knockout or submission, and who wins the various bonus awards given out after every UFC event.
All UFC picks use the same type of betting odds so you should familiarize yourself with the system listed above if you are new to sports betting. The bet where you get to choose a fighter and how he will end it often results in some great underdog betting odds that could make you rich overnight. Matt Serra was a huge 7/1 underdog when he knocked out Georges St. Pierre. A bet on Serra to end it with punches would likely pay something close to 20/1 (or +2000 in the sample above). Making UFC picks on the various Fight of the Night, Knockout of the Night, and Submission of the Night bonuses are also great money makers, as are fastest knockout or fastest submission. You’ll have to check out all of the various odds available for UFC picks when the next event rolls around, and we encourage you to get into this sport now because there is plenty of money to be made on UFC picks.
It pains me to see sports bettors getting the worst odds, so I’m giving everyone some pointers on getting the best value on your UFC picks.
“Value” has two meanings for me and we’ll go over both contexts to help everyone make the best UFC picks. Value can refer to getting the best UFC odds before betting on the fighter you like, but it can also refer to making the right selections with your UFC picks.
An instance of getting a poor value with your UFC picks using the 2nd definition would be to bet on a guy with excellent striking and no takedown defense against a fighter with an iron chin and incredible wrestling. The wrestler wins this fight 9 times out of 10 but I still see people throwing away money on UFC picks on the striker because of what he’s done to lesser fighters in the past.
Make sure you know where the fight is likely to take place and don’t just assume that the elite striker will be able to crack the chin of anyone he goes up against. When making your UFC picks, you have to figure out what realistic chance your guy has and then you should compare it to the actual betting odds to see if the bet has “value”.
The 1st definition I listed is probably the more common betting mistake when making UFC picks. You’ll increase your profit margins by a ton if you make your UFC picks at the correct time and it’s essential to get the best odds if you plan on wagering for a long time.
For a $100 bettor, the difference between going 50-50 over 100 UFC picks at -110 odds and -130 odds would be $1000. People simply don’t look at the long run when making their UFC picks and many bettors end up throwing money away by not getting the best number for a particular fight.
A general rule of thumb when making your UFC picks would be to bet on a popular fighter when the odds first debut, while waiting until right before the fight starts to get on a guy that you like that doesn’t have a ton of fans or fame. Fighters like Brock Lesnar, Randy Couture, and Chuck Liddell are big names and casual bettors are going to be betting on those guys no matter what. To get the best odds, make your UFC picks early to lock in a number before the general public gets a chance to reduce your payout.
Follow those two tips and you’ll improve your UFC picks’ profits by a ton. Making simple mistakes like I mentioned could cost bettors thousands of dollars a year and the sad part about the whole situation is that the people making the mistakes will probably never have any idea they are burning their money needlessly. Now that you’ve read this, consider yourself a bit more educated and one step closer toward being a lifelong winner with your UFC picks.